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CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: contemporary climate

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Abstract

The present study is a preliminary interrogation of the ability of ten Earth System Models (ESMs) from the fifth phase of coupled model intercomparison project to characterize seasonal and annual mean precipitation cycle over the Greater Horn of Africa region. Each ESM had at least 2 ensemble members. In spite of distributional anomalies of observations, ESM ensemble means were examined on the basis of gridded precipitation data. Majority of the ten ESMs analyzed correctly reproduce the mean seasonal and annual cycle of precipitation for the period 1979–2008 as compared to gridded satellite-derived observations. At the same time our analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on region and season. Specifically, a modest number of models were able to capture correctly the peaks of bimodal (MAM and OND) and JJAS rainfall while a few either dragged the onset to subsequent months or displaced the locations of seasonal rainfall further north. Nearly all models were in agreement with their representation of the zonal orientation of spatial pattern of the leading EOF rainfall modes; more so, enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and a dipole mode of precipitation pattern are captured in the first and second mode respectively. Further, the corresponding EOF time series of the ESMs rainfall modes were all in phase with observations. However, all models output were positively biased against observations, with large medians and varied range of anomalies. Therefore, caution needs to be taken when choosing models for applications over the region, especially when ensemble means have to be considered.

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Acknowledgments

For their roles in producing, coordinating, and making available the CMIP5 model output, we acknowledge the climate modeling groups, the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), and the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP). We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This research was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant Grant #: AGS 0854615.

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  1. Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA

    Vincent O. Otieno & Richard O. Anyah

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Correspondence to Richard O. Anyah.

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Otieno, V.O., Anyah, R.O. CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: contemporary climate. Clim Dyn 41, 2081–2097 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1549-z

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