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A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

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Abstract

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100 years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000 years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.

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Acknowledgments

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s 7th framework programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. GA212643 (THOR: "Thermohaline Overturning—at Risk", 2008–2012) and was supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Hadley Centre Climate Programme, DECC/Defra (GA01101) and the German BMBF NORDATLANTIK project. The authors would like to thank Paul Halloran and Laura Jackson for valuable discussion.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom

    Matthew B. Menary, Michael Vellinga & Matthew D. Palmer

  2. IFM-GEOMAR, Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Duesternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, Germany

    Wonsun Park & Mojib Latif

  3. Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Katja Lohmann & Johann H. Jungclaus

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  1. Matthew B. Menary
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  2. Wonsun Park
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  3. Katja Lohmann
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  4. Michael Vellinga
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  6. Mojib Latif
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  7. Johann H. Jungclaus
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Correspondence to Matthew B. Menary.

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Menary, M.B., Park, W., Lohmann, K. et al. A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability. Clim Dyn 38, 2377–2388 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1172-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1172-4

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