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Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region

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Abstract

The delayed impact of winter sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in tropical Pacific on spring precipitation over the North Atlantic/European (NAE) region is examined using both measured and modeled data for the period 1901–2002. In an AMIP-type Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) ensemble, the observed delayed spring precipitation response in Europe to winter ENSO-related SST anomalies is well reproduced. A series of targeted AGCM/coupled GCM experiments are performed to further investigate the mechanisms for this delayed influence. It is found that late winter ENSO SST anomalies lead to the well-documented Rossby wave train arching from the Pacific into the Atlantic region. A positive (negative) ENSO event leads to a quasi-barotropic trough (ridge) in the North Atlantic region. The resulting wind and cloud changes cause anomalies in the surface heat fluxes that result in negative (positive) SST anomalies in the central North Atlantic and anomalies of the opposite sign further to the south. The SST anomalies persist into spring and the atmospheric response to these anomalies is an extension of the ENSO-induced trough (ridge) into the European region, leading to enhanced (reduced) moisture flux and low-level convergence (divergence) and thus positive (negative) precipitation anomalies. Although the signal is overall relatively weak (correlation coefficients of European spring rainfall with winter ENSO SSTs of about 0.3), a proper representation of the outlined mechanism in seasonal forecasting systems may lead to improved seasonal predictions.

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Notes

  1. University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.

  2. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Meteorological Office, Exeter, UK.

  3. Provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov).

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Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate the suggestion of Mirko Orlić about delayed ENSO impact on precipitation over Europe. We would like to thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive and helpful comments. This work has been supported by the Ministry of Science, Educational and Sports of the Republic of Croatia (grants No. 119-1193086-1323). Ivana Herceg Bulić also acknowledges support by the European Science Foundation (ESF) activity entitled Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability (MedCLIVAR).

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  1. Andrija Mohorovičić Geophysical Institute, Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

    Ivana Herceg Bulić

  2. Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

    Fred Kucharski

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  1. Ivana Herceg Bulić
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Correspondence to Ivana Herceg Bulić.

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Herceg Bulić, I., Kucharski, F. Delayed ENSO impact on spring precipitation over North/Atlantic European region. Clim Dyn 38, 2593–2612 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1151-9

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