Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Causes of recent changes in western North American snowpack

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) station observations and gridded temperature data are used to identify mechanisms by which warming affects the temporal and geographical structure of changes in western North American mountain snowpack. We first exploit interannual variability to demonstrate the sensitivity of snowpack to temperature during the various phases of the snow season. We show that mechanisms whereby temperature affects snowpack emerge in the mid to late portion of the snow season (March through May), but are nearly absent during the earliest phase (February), when temperatures are generally well below freezing. The mid to late snow season is precisely when significant loss of snowpack is seen at nearly all locations over the past few decades, both through decreases in snow accumulation and increases in snowmelt. At locations where April 1st SWE has been increasing over the past few decades, the increase is entirely due to a significant enhancement of accumulation during the earliest phase of the snow season, when the sensitivity analysis indicates that temperature is not expected to affect snowpack. Later in the snow season, these stations exhibit significant snowpack loss comparable to the other stations. Based on this analysis, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that recent snowpack changes in western North America are caused by regional-scale warming. Given predictions of future warming, a further reduction in late season snowpack and advancement in the onset of snowmelt should be expected in the coming decades throughout the region.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barnett T, Adam J, Lettenmaier D (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438:303–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett T, Pierce D, Hidalgo H, Bonfils C, Santer B, Das T, Bala G, Wood A, Nozawa T, Mirin A, Cayan D, Dettinger M (2008) Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States. Science 319:1080–1083

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonfils C, Duffy P, Lobell D (2007) Comments on “methodology and results of calculating Central California surface temperature trends: evidence of human-induced climate change?”. J Clim 20:4486–4489

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonfils C, Santer B, Pierce D, Hidalgo H, Bala G, Das T, Barnett T, Cayan D, Doutriaux C, Wood A, Mirin A, Nozawa T (2008) Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous Western United States. J Clim 21:6404–6424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brekke L, Kiang J, Olsen J, Pulwarty R, Raff D, Turnipseed D, Webb R, White K (2009) Climate change and water resources management: a federal perspective. US Geological Survey Circular (1331):65. http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/

  • Brown R, Mote P (2009) The response of northern hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate. J Clim 22:2124–2145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casola J, Cuo L, Livneh B, Lettenmaier D, Stoelinga M, Mote P, Wallace J (2009) Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington cascades. J Clim 22(10):2758–2772

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cayan D (1996) Interannual climate variability and snowpack in the Western United States. J Clim 9:928–948

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cayan D, Kammerdiener S, Dettinger M, Caprio J, Peterson D (2001) Changes in the onset of spring in the Western United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:339–415

    Google Scholar 

  • Christensen N, Wood A, Voisin N, Lettenmaier D, Palmer R (2004) The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin. Clim Change 62:337–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christy J, Hnilo J (2010) Changes in snowfall in the Southern Sierra Nevada of California since 1916. Energy Environ 21(3):223–234

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark M, Serreze M, McCabe G (2001) The historical effect of el niño and la niña events on the seasonal evolution of the montane snowpack in the Columbia and Colorado River Basins. Water Resour Res 37:741–757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Das T, Hidalgo H, Pierce D, Barnett T, Dettinger M, Cayan D, Bonfils C, Bala G, Mirin A (2009) Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the Western United States. J Hydrometeorol 10(4):871–892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng S, Hu Q (2007) Changes in winter snowfall/precipitaiton ratio in the contiguous United States. J Geophys Res 112, art no. D15109, 12 pp. http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2007/2007JD008397.shtml. doi:10.1029/2007JD008397

  • Gleick P, Palaniappan M (2010) Peak water: conceptual and practical limits to freshwater withdrawal and use. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (10.1073/pnas.1004812107) (in press)

  • Hall A (2004) Role of surface albedo feedback in climate. J Clim 17:1550–1568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamlet A, Lettenmaier D (2005) Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental United States. J Hydrometeorol 6:330–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamlet A, Mote P, Clark M, Lettenmaier D (2005) Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the Western United States. J Clim 18:4545–4560

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Howat I, Tulaczyk S (2005) Climate sensitivity of spring snowpack in the Sierra Nevada. J Geophys Res 110, art.no F04021, 9 pp. http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2005/2005JF000356.shtml. doi:10.1029/2005JF000,356

  • Jost G, Weiler M, Gluns DR, Alila Y (2007) The influence of forest and topography on snow accumulation and melt at the watershed-scale. J Hydrometeorol 347(1–2):101–115

    Google Scholar 

  • Kapnick S, Hall A (2010) Observed climate-snowpack relationships in California and their implications for the future. J Clim 23(13):3446–3456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim J, Chao Y, Eldering A, Fovell R, Hall A, Li Q, Liou K, McWilliams J, Waliser D, Xue Y, Kapnick S (2009) A projection of the cold season hydroclimate in California in mid-21st century under the sres-a1b emission scenario. California Environmental Protection Agency and California Energy Commission Report (CEC-500-2009-029-F)

  • Knowles N, Dettinger M, Cayan D (2006) Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States. J Clim 19:4545–4559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leathers D, Robinson D (1997) Abrupt changes in the seasonal cycle of North American snow cover. J Clim 10:2569–2585

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leung R, Qian Y, Bian X, Washington W, Han J, Roads J (2004) Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the Western United States. Clim Change 6:75–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lundquist J, Cayan D, Dettinger M (2004) Spring onset in the Sierra Nevada: when is snowmelt independent of elevation. J Hydrometeorol 5:327–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maurer E (2007) Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios. Clim Change 82(3-4):309–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCabe G, Wolock D (2010) Long-term variability in northern hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer witners. Clim Change 99:141–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCabe G, Hay L, Clark M (2007) Rain-on-snow events in the western United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:319–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minder J, Mote P, Lundquist J (2010) Surface temperature lapse rates over complex terrain: lessons from the cascade mountains. J Geophys Res 115, art no. D14122, 13 pp. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009JD013493.shtml. doi:10.1029/2009JD013,493

  • Mote P (2003) Trends in snow water equivalent in the pacific northwest and their climatic causes. Geophys Res Lett 30(12), art no. 1601, 4 pp. http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2003/2003GL017258.shtml. doi:10.1029/2003GL017,258

  • Mote P (2006) Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in Western North America. J Clim 19:6209–6220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mote P, Hamlet A, Clark M, Lettenmaier D (2005) Declining mountain snowpack in Western north America. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86:39–49

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierce D, Barnett T, Hidalgo H, Das T, Bonfils C, Santer B, Bala G, Dettinger M, Cayan D, Mirin A, Wood A, Nozawa T (2008) Attribution of declining Western U.S. snowpack to human effects. J Clim 21:6425–6444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajagopalan B, Nowak K, Prairie J, Hoerling M, Harding B, Barsugli J, Ray A, Udall B (2009) Water supply risk on the Colorado River: can management mitigate? Water Res Res 45, art no. W08201, 7 pp. http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2009/2008WR007652.shtml. doi:10.1029/2008WR007652

  • Regonda S, Rajagopalan B, Clark M, Pitlick J (2005) Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the Western United States. J Clim 18:372–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serreze M, Clark M, Armstrong R, McGinnis D, Pulwarty R (1999) Characteristics of the Western United States snowpack from snowpack telemetry (snotel) data. Water Res Res 35:2145–2160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, S, Qin, D, Manning, M, Chen, Z, Marquis, M, Averyt, K, Tignor, M, Miller, H (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Stewart I, Cayan D, Dettinger M (2004) Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western north America under a ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario. Clim Change 62:217–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stewart I, Cayan D, Dettinger M (2005) Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across Western North America. J Clim 18:1136–1155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicuna S, Leonardson R, Hanemann M, Dale L, Dracup J (2008) Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: a case study on the Upper American River. Clim Change 87(S1):123–137

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westerling A, Hidalgo H, Cayan D, Swetnam T (2006) Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313:940–943

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Philip Mote and one anonymous reviewer for their comments that greatly improved this manuscript. We are grateful to Christopher Cham for his help in compiling SWE observations for all stations used in this analysis. Sarah Kapnick’s work was supported by NASA headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program—Grant #07-Earth07F-0232 and a 2010 Switzer Environmental Fellowship. Alex Hall is supported by NSF grant AGS-0735056. The writers would also like to gratefully acknowledge funding provided by JPL (#1312546) under a project entitled: “Evaluating key uncertainties in IPCC Climate Change projection of California snowpack: Topography, snow, physics and aerosol deposition.”

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Box 951565, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA

    Sarah Kapnick & Alex Hall

Authors
  1. Sarah Kapnick
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Alex Hall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sarah Kapnick.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kapnick, S., Hall, A. Causes of recent changes in western North American snowpack. Clim Dyn 38, 1885–1899 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1089-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1089-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation