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Tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence

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Abstract

We present here the first statistically calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of climate from continental Southeast Asia. The reconstructed variable is March–May (MAM) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) based on ring widths from 22 trees (42 radial cores) of rare and long-lived conifer, Fokienia hodginsii (Po Mu as locally called) from northern Vietnam. This is the first published tree ring chronology from Vietnam as well as the first for this species. Spanning 535 years, this is the longest cross-dated tree-ring series yet produced from continental Southeast Asia. Response analysis revealed that the annual growth of Fokienia at this site was mostly governed by soil moisture in the pre-monsoon season. The reconstruction passed the calibration-verification tests commonly used in dendroclimatology, and revealed two prominent periods of drought in the mid-eighteenth and late-nineteenth centuries. The former lasted nearly 30 years and was concurrent with a similar drought over northwestern Thailand inferred from teak rings, suggesting a “mega-drought” extending across Indochina in the eighteenth century. Both of our reconstructed droughts are consistent with the periods of warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Spatial correlation analyses with global SST indicated that ENSO-like anomalies might play a role in modulating droughts over the region, with El Niño (warm) phases resulting in reduced rainfall. However, significant correlation was also seen with SST over the Indian Ocean and the north Pacific, suggesting that ENSO is not the only factor affecting the climate of the area. Spectral analyses revealed significant peaks in the range of 53.9–78.8 years as well as in the ENSO-variability range of 2.0 to 3.2 years.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Dr. Mai Sy Tuan and Mr. Pham Hong Tinh for their assistance in our sample collection in Vietnam. This study was funded by the 2004–2005 Grant-in-aid for JSPS Fellows (no. 16–2832) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan and Asahi Breweries Foundation for the period of fiscal year 2004.

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  1. Masaki Sano

    Present address: Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560 012, India

Authors and Affiliations

  1. United Graduate School of Agricultural Sciences, Ehime University, 3-5-7 Tarumi, Matsuyama, 790-8566, Japan

    Masaki Sano & Tatsuo Sweda

  2. Tree Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA

    Brendan M. Buckley

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  1. Masaki Sano
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  2. Brendan M. Buckley
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Correspondence to Masaki Sano.

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Sano, M., Buckley, B.M. & Sweda, T. Tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence. Clim Dyn 33, 331–340 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0454-y

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