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The impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the fastest growth of ENSO prediction error

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Abstract

In this paper we explore the impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the optimal growth of initial condition error of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction using singular vector (SV) analysis. This is performed by comparing and analyzing SVs of two hybrid coupled models (HCMs), one composed of an intermediate complexity dynamical ocean model coupled with a linear statistical atmospheric model, and the other one with the same ocean model coupled with a nonlinear statistical atmosphere. Tangent linear and adjoint models for both HCMs are developed. SVs are computed under the initial conditions of seasonal background and actual ENSO cycle simulated by the ocean model forced with the real wind data of 1980–1999. The optimization periods of 3, 6 and 9 months are individually considered. The results show that the first SVs in both HCMs are very similar to each other, characterized by a central east-west dipole pattern spanning over the entire tropical Pacific. The spatial patterns of the leading SV in both HCMs are not sensitive to optimization periods and initial time. However, the first singular value, indicating the optimal growth rate of prediction error, displays considerable differences between the two HCMs, indicating a significant impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the optimal growth of ENSO prediction error. These differences are greater with increasing optimization time, suggesting that the impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the optimal growth of prediction error becomes larger for a longer period of prediction.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Grant GR-523 to Y. Tang. XZ wishes to thank Dr. Zhijin Li for his helpful discussions to compute the SVs.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, Canada, V2N 4Z9

    Xiaobing Zhou, Youmin Tang & Ziwang Deng

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  1. Xiaobing Zhou
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  2. Youmin Tang
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  3. Ziwang Deng
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Correspondence to Youmin Tang.

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Zhou, X., Tang, Y. & Deng, Z. The impact of atmospheric nonlinearities on the fastest growth of ENSO prediction error. Clim Dyn 30, 519–531 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0302-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0302-5

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