Abstract
There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This paper presents dynamically downscaled near-surface wind fields and examines the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields from the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) with boundary conditions derived from ECHAM4/OPYC3 AOGCM and the HadAM3H atmosphere-only GCM exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in reanalysis data products during the control period (1961–1990). The near-surface wind speeds calculated for a climate change projection period of 2071–2100 are higher than during the control run for two IPCC emission scenarios (A2, B2) for simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3. The RCAO simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3 indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run and climate change projection period and for more substantial increases in energy density during the winter season. However, the differences between the RCAO simulations for the climate projection period and the control run are of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Additionally, the simulations show a high degree of sensitivity to the boundary conditions, and simulations conducted using boundary conditions from HadAM3H exhibit evidence of slight declines or no change in wind speed and energy density between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. Hence, the uncertainty of the projected wind changes is relatively high.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barthelmie RJ (1999) The effects of atmospheric stability on coastal wind climates. Meteorol Appl 6:39–48
Giebel G (2001) On the benefits of distributed generation of wind energy in Europe. VDI Verlag, Düsseldorf, Fortschritt-Berichte VDI, Reihe 6, Nr. 444 (Ph.D. thesis). Roskilde: 106
Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal J (2004a) Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. I. Present-day climate (1961–1990). Clim Dyn 22:733–756
Giorgi F, Bi X, Pal J (2004b) Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II. Climate change scenarios (2071–2100). Clim Dyn 23:839–858
Glowienka-Hense R (1990) The North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic-European SLP. Tellus 42A:497–507
Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679
Hurrell J, Van Loon H (1997) Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim Change 36:301–326
IPCC (2000) Emissions scenarios. 2000. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 570
IPCC (2001) IPCC third assessment report. Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 881
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelweski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40 reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
Kemball-Cook S, Wang B, Fu X (2002) Simulation of the intraseasonal oscillation in the ECHAM-4 model: The impact of coupling with an ocean model. J Atmos Sci 59:1433–1453
Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanamitsu M, Kousky V, van den Dool H, Jenne R, Fiorino M (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50 year reanalysis: Monthly mean CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247–267
Kjellström E (2004) Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe. Ambio 33:193–198
Lunneborg CE (2000) Data analysis by resampling—concepts and applications. Duxbury Press, Pacific Grove, p 566
Mann J, Kristensen L, Jensen NO (1998) Uncertainties of extreme winds, spectra, and coherences. Bridge Aerodynamics. Larsen and Esdahl. Rotterdam, Balkerna, pp 49–56
Pandey MD (2001) Minimum cross-entropy method for extreme value estimation using peaks-over-threshold data. Struct Saf 23:345–363
Pavia EG, O’Brien JJ (1986) Weibull statistics of wind speed over the ocean. J Clim Appl Meteorol 25:1324–1332
Pope V, Gallani M, Rowntree P, Stratton R (2000) The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Clim Dyn 16:123–146
Pryor SC, Barthelmie RJ (2002) Comparison of potential power production at on- and off-shore sites. Wind Energy 2001 4:173–181
Pryor SC, Barthelmie RJ (2003) Long term trends in near surface flow over the Baltic. Int J Climatol 23:271–289
Pryor SC, Barthelmie RJ (2004) Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability. Roskilde, Denmark, Risoe National Laboratory: 111 pp, RISO-R-1477, ISBN: 0106–2840 (available from: http://www.risoe.dk/rispubl/VEA/veapdf/ris-r-1477.pdf)
Pryor SC, Nielsen M, Barthelmie RJ, Mann J (2004) Can satellite sampling of offshore wind speeds realistically represent wind speed distributions? Part II: quantifying uncertainties associated with sampling strategy and distribution fitting methods. J Appl Meteorol 43:739–750
Pryor SC, Barthelmie RJ, Schoof JT (2005) The impact of non-stationarities in the climate system on the definition of ’a normal wind year’: a case study from the Baltic. Int J Climatol 25:735–752
Quarton DC (1997) The calculation of design loads for offshore wind turbines. Wind Eng 21:267–279
Räisänen J, Hansson U, Ullerstig A, Doscher R, Graham L, Jones C, Meier H, Samuelsson P, Willen U (2003) GCM driven simulations of recent and future climate with the Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere-Baltic Sea regional climate model RCAO. SMHI, Norrkoping, Rossby Centre, p 61
Räisänen J, Hansson U, Ullerstig A, Döscher R, Graham L, Jones C, Meier H, Samuelsson P, Willen U (2004) European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Clim Dyn 22:13–31
Robeson SM, Shein KA (1997) Spatial coherence and decay of wind speed and power in the north-central United States. Phys Geogr 18:479–495
Roeckner E, Bengtsson L, Feichter J, Lelieveld J, Rodhe H (1999) Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle. J Clim 12:3004–3032
Schär C, Vidale P, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, Liniger M, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332–336
Simmons AJ, Gibson JK (2000) The ERA-40 Project Plan. UK Meteorological Office, UK, available from http://www.ecmwf.int/:63
Troen I, Petersen EL (1989) European wind atlas. Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark, p 656
Zervos A (2003) Developing wind energy to meet the Kyoto Targets in the European Union. Wind Energy 6:309–319
Acknowledgments
The work presented received limited financial support from the Climate and Energy (CE) project 2003–2006, which is funded by the Nordic Energy Research (Nordisk Energiforskning) and the energy sector in the Nordic countries as well as the participating institutions. We gratefully acknowledge the data centers that supply the reanalysis data for public use, and the comments of two anonymous reviewers.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J. & Kjellström, E. Potential climate change impact on wind energy resources in northern Europe: analyses using a regional climate model. Clim Dyn 25, 815–835 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0072-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0072-x