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Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia

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Abstract

Fine-resolution regional climate simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs) are performed over the eastern Australian region. The horizontal resolution (30 km) is fine enough that a good climatological simulation of observed tropical cyclone formation is obtained using the observed tropical cyclone lower wind speed threshold (17 m s–1). This simulation is performed without the insertion of artificial vortices (“bogussing”). The simulated occurrence of cyclones, measured in numbers of days of cyclone activity, is slightly greater than observed. While the model-simulated distribution of central pressures resembles that observed, simulated wind speeds are generally rather lower, due to weaker than observed pressure gradients close to the centres of the simulated storms. Simulations of the effect of climate change are performed. Under enhanced greenhouse conditions, simulated numbers of TCs do not change very much compared with those simulated for the current climate, nor do regions of occurrence. There is a 56% increase in the number of simulated storms with maximum winds greater than 30 m s–1 (alternatively, a 26% increase in the number of storms with central pressures less than 970 hPa). In addition, there is an increase in the number of intense storms simulated south of 30°S. This increase in simulated maximum storm intensity is consistent with previous studies of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclone wind speeds.

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Acknowledgements.

The authors would like to thank the State Government of Queensland, particularly the Department of Natural Resources and Mines, and CSIRO for supporting this work. Jack Katzfey, Mike Fiorino and an anonymous reviewer made comments that improved the work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Australia

    K. J. E. Walsh, K.-C. Nguyen & J. L. McGregor

  2. School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia

    K. J. E. Walsh

Authors
  1. K. J. E. Walsh
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  2. K.-C. Nguyen
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  3. J. L. McGregor
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Correspondence to K. J. E. Walsh.

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Walsh, K.J.E., Nguyen, KC. & McGregor, J.L. Fine-resolution regional climate model simulations of the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones near Australia. Climate Dynamics 22, 47–56 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0362-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0362-0

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