Abstract
In earlier studies, objective techniques have been used to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to precipitation (TCP) in a region, where the Tropical cyclone Precipitation Event (TPE) and the Regional Heavy Precipitation Events (RHPEs) are defined and investigated. In this study, TPE and RHPEs are combined to determine the Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events (TRHPEs), which is employed to evaluate the contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation events. Based on the Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events (OITREE) and the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) to define TPE, temporal and spatial overlap indices are developed to identify the combined events as TRHPE. With daily precipitation data and TC best-track data over the western North Pacific from 1960 to 2018, 86 TRHPEs have been identified. TRHPEs contribute as much as 20% of the RHPEs, but 100% of events with extreme individual precipitation intensities. The major TRHPEs continued for approximately a week after tropical cyclone landfall, indicating a role of post landfall precipitation. The frequency and extreme intensity of TRHPEs display increasing trends, consistent with an observed positive trend in the mean intensity of TPEs as measured by the number of daily station precipitation observations exceeding 100 mm and 250 mm. More frequent landfalling Southeast and South China TCs induced more serious impacts in coastal areas in the Southeast and the South during 1990–2018 than 1960–89. The roles of cyclone translation speed and “shifts” in cyclone tracks are examined as possible explanations for the temporal trends.
摘 要
随着区域性强降水事件(RHPE)的频繁发生, 热带气旋降水(TPE)在其中的贡献不可忽视。在早期的研究中, 区域性极端事件的客观识别技术已被用于确定热带气旋对某一地区降水的贡献。在本研究中, 通过将两类降水事件相结合来确定台风区域强降水事件(TRHPE), 以评估热带气旋对区域极端降水事件的贡献。我们基于区域性极端事件的客观识别技术(OITREE, Ren et al., 2012)和TC降水天气图客观识别技术(OSAT, Ren et al., 2007)建立了用以识别台风区域性强降水事件的客观识别方法。研究结果表明:在1960–2018年, 共有86个台风区域性强降水事件, 占所有区域性强降水事件的20%。热带气旋登陆后, 台风区域强降水事件持续约一周, 表明登陆后台风对降水的作用。值得注意的是, 台风停编后, 大部分强降水仍在继续, 即登陆后热带气旋的残余环流对区域性强降雨事件有重要贡献。从时空分布特征来看, 台风区域强降水事件的频率和极端强度有不断增加的趋势, 这与热带气旋降水平均强度的趋势相一致;在空间上呈现出从东南向西北方向强度频次均递减的趋势;与1960–1989年相比, 1990–2018年期间, TC更频繁地登陆中国东南、华南并在东南部和南部的沿海地区产生了更严重的影响。除此之外, 台风路径的偏移和台风移速或成为上述分布特征的可能解释。
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507703), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41675042), and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change. The authors would like to express their sincere appreciation to Dr. Jingxin LI and Mr. Haibo ZHOU for their kind help.
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Article Highlights
• The contribution of tropical cyclones to regional extreme precipitation events is evaluated.
• The temporal and spatial characteristics of Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events over China are investigated.
• The results are relevant to climate change studies as well as extreme events risk analysis over China.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Climate Change and Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity.
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Tian, Y., Mcbride, J.L., Ren, F. et al. Changes in Typhoon Regional Heavy Precipitation Events over China from 1960 to 2018. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 272–283 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1015-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1015-0