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Simulations of Eurasian winter temperature trends in coupled and uncoupled CFSv2

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Abstract

Conflicting results have been presented regarding the link between Arctic sea-ice loss and midlatitude cooling, particularly over Eurasia. This study analyzes uncoupled (atmosphere-only) and coupled (ocean–atmosphere) simulations by the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), to examine this linkage during the Northern Hemisphere winter, focusing on the simulation of the observed surface cooling trend over Eurasia during the last three decades. The uncoupled simulations are Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs forced with mean seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, using combinations of SST and sea ice from different time periods to assess the role that each plays individually, and to assess the role of atmospheric internal variability. Coupled runs are used to further investigate the role of internal variability via the analysis of initialized predictions and the evolution of the forecast with lead time.

The AMIP simulations show a mean warming response over Eurasia due to SST changes, but little response to changes in sea ice. Individual runs simulate cooler periods over Eurasia, and this is shown to be concurrent with a stronger Siberian high and warming over Greenland. No substantial differences in the variability of Eurasian surface temperatures are found between the different model configurations. In the coupled runs, the region of significant warming over Eurasia is small at short leads, but increases at longer leads. It is concluded that, although the models have some capability in highlighting the temperature variability over Eurasia, the observed cooling may still be a consequence of internal variability.

摘要

针对北极海冰减少和中纬度地区特别是欧亚地区的变冷之间关系的研究, 存在一些争议或者相冲突的结果. 本文利用CFSv2系统的非耦合大气模式(AMIP)和海洋-大气耦合模式模拟, 来检验北半球冬季的这种关联, 重点是模拟过去30年观测到的欧亚地区的地表变冷趋势. 首先利用非耦合的大气模式并以季节循环的海温(SST)和海冰密集度(SIC)作为强迫场驱动, 选取不同时期的平均SST和SIC, 并通过SST和SIC之间的多种组合强迫, 分析强迫场及大气内部变化的影响. 进一步利用海洋-大气耦合模式, 通过初始化预测及提前预报的演变, 分析大气内部变化的作用.

AMIP模拟结果显示, 由于海温变化, 欧亚地区平均增暖, 但欧亚气温对海冰变化几乎没有响应. 个别试验模拟出了较低的欧亚气温, 同时出现的是较强的西伯利亚高压和格陵兰岛的增暖. 不同的模式配置(即不同的海温海冰强迫组合)并不会造成欧亚表面温度变化的明显差异. 耦合试验结果显示, 短期预测试验模拟的欧亚显著增暖区域很小, 但随着预报时段的增长, 更多的欧亚区域变暖. 因此, 尽管模式具有突出欧亚大陆温度变化的能力, 但观测到的地表变冷仍可能是大气内部变率的结果.

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Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office Climate Variability and Predictability Program. We thank Qin ZHANG (CPC), Kirstin HARNOS (INNOVIM/ CPC), and the two anonymous reviewers for their assessment of this manuscript.

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  1. INNOVIM, LLC, Greenbelt, MD, 20770, USA

    Thomas W. Collow

  2. NOAA/NCEP Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Thomas W. Collow, Wanqiu Wang & Arun Kumar

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Collow, T.W., Wang, W. & Kumar, A. Simulations of Eurasian winter temperature trends in coupled and uncoupled CFSv2. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 35, 14–26 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6294-0

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