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The long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation and its link to urbanization effects in Shanghai during 1916–2014

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Abstract

Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century (1916–2014), the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that: (1) Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. (2) The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. (3) Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.

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Acknowledgements

This research was jointly supported by the Major Consulting Projects of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (“Study on Strategies and Measures for the Prevention and Control of Urban Flood and Waterlogging Disasters in China”), the Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological) Research Projects (Grant Nos. GYHY201306065, GYHY201406001), and a research project of the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (Grant No. YJ201604). The authors acknowledge the three anonymous reviewers, whose comments and suggestions helped to improve the paper.

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  1. Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai, 200030, China

    Ping Liang

  2. National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yihui Ding

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  1. Ping Liang
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Liang, P., Ding, Y. The long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation and its link to urbanization effects in Shanghai during 1916–2014. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 321–334 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-6120-0

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