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Recent changes in precipitation extremes in the Heihe River basin, Northwest China

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Abstract

Changes in rainfall extremes pose a serious and additional threat to water resources planning and management, natural and artificial oasis stability, and sustainable development in the fragile ecosystems of arid inland river basins. In this study, the trend and temporal variation of extreme precipitation are analyzed using daily precipitation datasets at 11 stations over the arid inland Heihe River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2011. Eight indices of extreme precipitation are studied. The results show statistically significant and large-magnitude increasing and decreasing trends for most indices, primarily in the Qilian Mountains and eastern Hexi Corridor. More frequent and intense rainfall extremes have occurred in the southern part of the desert area than in the northern portion. In general, the temporal variation in precipitation extremes has changed throughout the basin. Wet day precipitation and heavy precipitation days show statistically significant linear increasing trends and step changes in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. Consecutive dry days have decreased obviously in the region in most years after approximately the late 1980s, but meanwhile very long dry spells have increased, especially in the Hexi Corridor. The probability density function indicates that very long wet spells have increased in the QilianMountains. The East Asian summer monsoon index and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index possess strong and significant negative and positive correlations with rainfall extremes, respectively. Changes in land surface characteristics and the increase in water vapor in the wet season have also contributed to the changes in precipitation extremes over the river basin.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, Chian

    Aifang Cheng, Qi Feng, Zongxing Li & Gang Wang

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, Chian

    Aifang Cheng, Zongxing Li & Gang Wang

  3. CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA, 6913, Australia

    Guobin Fu

  4. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, Chian

    Jiankai Zhang

  5. Guangzhou Meteorological Satellite Ground Station, Guangzhou, 510640, Chian

    Meng Hu

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  1. Aifang Cheng
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  2. Qi Feng
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  3. Guobin Fu
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  4. Jiankai Zhang
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  7. Gang Wang
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Correspondence to Qi Feng.

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Cheng, A., Feng, Q., Fu, G. et al. Recent changes in precipitation extremes in the Heihe River basin, Northwest China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 32, 1391–1406 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-4199-3

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