Future changes and uncertainties in temperature and precipitation over China based on CMIP5 models

Abstract

Climate changes in future 21st century China and their uncertainties are evaluated based on 22 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). By 2081–2100, the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) is predicted to increase by 1.3°C±0.7°C, 2.6°C±0.8°C and 5.2°C±1.2°C under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, relative to 1986–2005, respectively. The future change in SAT averaged over China increases the most in autumn/winter and the least in spring, while the uncertainty shows little seasonal variation. Spatially, the annual and seasonal mean SAT both show a homogeneous warming pattern across China, with a warming rate increasing from southeastern China to the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, invariant with time and emissions scenario. The associated uncertainty in SAT decreases from northern to southern China. Meanwhile, by 2081–2100, the annual mean precipitation increases by 5%±5%, 8%±6% and 12%±8% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The national average precipitation anomaly percentage, largest in spring and smallest in winter, and its uncertainty, largest in winter and smallest in autumn, show visible seasonal variations. Although at a low confidence level, a homogeneous wetting pattern is projected across China on the annual mean scale, with a larger increasing percentage in northern China and a weak drying in southern China in the early 21st century. The associated uncertainty is also generally larger in northern China and smaller in southwestern China. In addition, both SAT and precipitation usually show larger seasonal variability on the sub-regional scale compared with the national average.