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Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation

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Abstract

Based on initial errors of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean that are most likely to induce spring predictability barrier (SPB) for the El Niño prediction, the sensitive area of sea temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction starting from January is identified using the CESM1.0.3 (Community Earth System Model), a fully coupled global climate model. The sensitive area locates mainly in the subsurface of eastern Indian Ocean. The effectiveness of applying targeted observation in the sensitive area is also evaluated in an attempt to improve the El Niño prediction skill. The results of sensitivity experiments indicate that if initial errors exist only in the tropical Indian Ocean, applying targeted observation in the sensitive area in the Indian Ocean can significantly improve the El Niño prediction. In particular, for SPB-related El Niño events, when initial errors of sea temperature exist both in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, which is much closer to the realistic predictions, if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Pacific, the prediction skills of SPB-related El Niño events can be improved by 20.3% in general. Moreover, if targeted observations are conducted in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean in addition, the improvement of prediction skill can be increased by 25.2%. Considering the volume of sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean is about 1/3 of that in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the prediction skill improvement per cubic kilometer in the sensitive area of tropical Indian Ocean is competitive to that of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Additional to the sensitive area of the tropical Pacific Ocean, sensitive area of the tropical Indian Ocean is also a very effective and cost-saving area for the application of targeted observations to improve El Niño forecast skills.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100081, China

    Qian Zhou

  2. Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Qian Zhou

  3. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Wansuo Duan

  4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Wansuo Duan

  5. Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Junya Hu

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  1. Qian Zhou
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  2. Wansuo Duan
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Correspondence to Wansuo Duan.

Additional information

Supported by the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction (No. GASI-IPOVAI-06), the National Public Benefit (Meteorology) Research Foundation of China (No. GYHY201306018), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41525017, 41606031, 41706016)

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Zhou, Q., Duan, W. & Hu, J. Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for El Niño prediction: implication for targeted observation. J. Ocean. Limnol. 38, 1602–1615 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-019-9062-4

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