Abstract
Quantitative pollen-based land-cover reconstruction covering the last 4,000 years was performed using transformation coefficients derived from a modern pollen land-cover database and a palynological record from an annually laminated sequence in Lake Rõuge Tõugjärv. Proportions of four land-cover classes characteristic of cultural landscape were reconstructed: habitation area, arable land, grassland and woodland. A land-use change model using CA_Markov analysis was applied for spatial reconstructions for seven periods: 600 b.c., a.d. 300, 800, 1200, 1700, 1870 and 1940. Historical maps from a.d. 1684, 1870–1899 and 1935 were used for calibration of quantitative estimates and to validate spatial reconstructions. The accuracy of the estimates depends on the availability of modern analogues and differs among land-cover classes, being highest for classes with directly connectable pollen indicator types (arable land, forest) and lowest for settlement areas. Spatial reconstructions produced by the CA_Markov land-cover change model show moderate accordance with historical data. However, the large uncertainties in land-cover input data must be considered in the evaluation of the KIA results of the spatial model. Permanent low intensity, rural land-use in the Rõuge area started at the beginning of the Bronze Age (c. 1800 b.c.). The major increase in the extent of rural land-use took place at the beginning of the 13th century and culminated during the 19th century when c. 90% of the RSAP of Rõuge Tõugjärv was open. During the last century, rural land-use decreased constantly.
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Acknowledgments
We thank the POLLANDCAL group for informative discussions. We are grateful to Raivo Aunap and Agu Vissel for vectorisation of the topographic model of the area and to Dr. Ralph Fyfe and Dr. Robert Szava-Kovats for linguistic revision. Prof. B. Berglund and an anonymous referee are thanked for their constructive and useful comments. Financial support was provided by Estonian target funding projects 0182530s03, 0331758s01 and 0332626s03 and the Estonian Science Foundation (grants 6736, 6995 and 5923).
This is a contribution to the NordForsk funded network POLLANDCAL (http://www.geog.ucl.ac.uk/ecrc/pollandcal/).
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Communicated by M.-J. Gaillard.
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Poska, A., Sepp, E., Veski, S. et al. Using quantitative pollen-based land-cover estimations and a spatial CA_Markov model to reconstruct the development of cultural landscape at Rõuge, South Estonia. Veget Hist Archaeobot 17, 527–541 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-007-0124-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00334-007-0124-8