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CT radiomics may predict the grade of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a multicenter study

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Abstract

Objective

To develop and validate a radiomics-based nomogram for preoperatively predicting grade 1 and grade 2/3 tumors in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs).

Methods

One hundred thirty-eight patients derived from two institutions with pathologically confirmed PNETs (104 in the training cohort and 34 in the validation cohort) were included in this retrospective study. A total of 853 radiomic features were extracted from arterial and portal venous phase CT images respectively. Minimum redundancy maximum relevance and random forest methods were adopted for the significant radiomic feature selection and radiomic signature construction. A fusion radiomic signature was generated by combining both the single-phase signatures. The nomogram based on a comprehensive model incorporating the clinical risk factors and the fusion radiomic signature was established, and decision curve analysis was applied for clinical use.

Results

The fusion radiomic signature has significant association with histologic grade (p < 0.001). The nomogram integrating independent clinical risk factor tumor margin and fusion radiomic signature showed strong discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.974 (95% CI 0.950–0.998) in the training cohort and 0.902 (95% CI 0.798–1.000) in the validation cohort with good calibration. Decision curve analysis verified the clinical usefulness of the predictive nomogram.

Conclusion

We proposed a comprehensive nomogram consisting of tumor margin and fusion radiomic signature as a powerful tool to predict grade 1 and grade 2/3 PNET preoperatively and assist the clinical decision-making for PNET patients.

Key Points

• Radiomic signature has strong discriminatory ability for the histologic grade of PNETs.

• Arterial and portal venous phase CT imaging are complementary for the prediction of PNET grading.

• The comprehensive nomogram outperformed clinical factors in assisting therapy strategy in PNET patients.

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Abbreviations

ACC:

Accuracy

AFP:

α-Fetoprotein

AUC:

Area under the curve

CA199:

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9

CEA:

Carcinoembryonic antigen

CI:

Confidence interval

CT:

Computed tomography

DMPD:

Dilatation of the main pancreatic duct

GLCM:

Gray level co-occurrence matrix

GLDM:

Gray level dependence matrix

GLRLM:

Gray level run length matrix

GLSZM:

Gray level size zone matrix

ICCs:

Intra- and inter-class correlation coefficient

MR:

Magnetic resonance

MRMR:

Minimum redundancy maximum relevance

NGTDM:

Neighboring gray tone difference matrix

NPV:

Negative predictive value

PA:

Pancreatic atrophy

PACS:

Picture archiving and communication system

PBG:

Preoperative blood glucose

PFP:

Protrusion from the outline of the pancreas

PLM:

Preoperative liver metastasis

PNETs:

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors

PPV:

Positive predictive value

RF:

Random forest

ROC:

Receiver operating characteristics

ROI:

Region of interest

SENS:

Sensitivity

SPEC:

Specificity

WHO:

World Health Organization

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Funding

This study has received funding by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81227901, 81527805, 61231004, 81771924, 81501616), National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0205200, 2017YFC1308700), and the Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KFJ-SW-STS-160).

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Authors

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Mengsu Zeng or Jie Tian.

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Guarantor

The scientific guarantor of this publication is Jie Tian.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Statistics and biometry

Dr. Jingwei Wei from the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, who is one of the authors, has significant statistical expertise.

Informed consent

Written informed consent was waived by the Institutional Review Board of Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Fudan University and Affiliated Hospital (Laoshan hospital) of Qingdao University.

Ethical approval

Institutional Review Board approval was obtained.

Methodology

• retrospective

• diagnostic or prognostic study

• multicenter study

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Gu, D., Hu, Y., Ding, H. et al. CT radiomics may predict the grade of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: a multicenter study. Eur Radiol 29, 6880–6890 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00330-019-06176-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00330-019-06176-x

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