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Early Prediction of Post-hepatectomy Liver Failure in Patients Undergoing Major Hepatectomy Using a PHLF Prognostic Nomogram

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Abstract

Background

Liver resection (LR) is the main modality of treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) remains the most dreaded complication. We aim to create a prognostic score for early risk stratification of patients undergoing LR.

Methodology

Clinical and operative data of 472 patients between 2000 and 2016 with HCC or CRLM undergoing major hepatectomy were extracted and analysed from a prospectively maintained database. PHLF was defined using the 50–50 criteria.

Results

Liver cirrhosis and fatty liver were histologically confirmed in 35.6% and 53% of patients. 4.7% (n = 22) of patients had PHLF. A 90-day mortality was 5.1% (n = 24). Pre-operative albumin–bilirubin score (p = 0.0385), prothrombin time (p < 0.0001) and the natural logarithm of the ratio of post-operative day 1 to pre-operative serum bilirubin (SB) (ln(POD1Bil/pre-opBil); p < 0.0001) were significantly independent predictors of PHLF. The PHLF prognostic nomogram was developed using these factors with receiver operating curve showing area under curve of 0.88. Excellent sensitivity (94.7%) and specificity (95.7%) for the prediction of PHLF (50–50 criteria) were achieved at cut-offs of 9 and 11 points on this model. This score was also predictive of PHLF according to PeakBil > 7 and International Study Group for Liver Surgery criteria, intensive care unit admissions, length of stay, all complications, major complications, re-admissions and mortality (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

The PHLF nomogram (https://tinyurl.com/SGH-PHLF-Risk-Calculator) can serve as a useful tool for early identification of patients at high risk of PHLF before the ‘point of no return’. This allows enforcement of closer monitoring, timely intervention and mitigation of adverse outcomes.

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Abbreviations

PPV:

Positive predictive value

NPV:

Negative predictive value

NE:

Not evaluable

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary and Transplant Surgery, Singapore General Hospital, 20 College Road, Singapore, 169856, Singapore

    Ken Min Chin, Ye Xin Koh, Nicholas Syn, Jin Yao Teo, Brian K. P. Goh, Peng Chung Cheow, Yaw Fui Alexander Chung, London Lucien Ooi, Chung Yip Chan & Ser Yee Lee

  2. Duke-National University of Singapore (NUS) Medical School Singapore, 8 College Road, Singapore, 169857, Singapore

    Ye Xin Koh, Jin Yao Teo, Brian K. P. Goh, Peng Chung Cheow, Yaw Fui Alexander Chung, London Lucien Ooi, Chung Yip Chan & Ser Yee Lee

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  1. Ken Min Chin
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  3. Nicholas Syn
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Correspondence to Ye Xin Koh.

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Chin, K.M., Koh, Y.X., Syn, N. et al. Early Prediction of Post-hepatectomy Liver Failure in Patients Undergoing Major Hepatectomy Using a PHLF Prognostic Nomogram. World J Surg 44, 4197–4206 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00268-020-05713-w

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