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A Coupled SD and CLUE-S Model for Exploring the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in Baoshan District, Shanghai, China

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Abstract

Most of the cities in developing countries are experiencing rapid urbanization. Land use change driven by urban sprawl, population growth, and intensified socio-economic activities have led to a steep decline of ecosystem service value (ESV) in rapid urbanization areas, and decision-makers often ignore some valuable ecosystem service functions and values in land use planning. In this paper, we attempt to build a modeling framework which integrated System Dynamics model with Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Extent model to simulate the dynamics of ESV of landscape and explore the potential impacts of land use change on ESV. We take Baoshan district of Shanghai as an example which is a fast urbanization area of metropolitan in China. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The integrated methodology can improve the characterization and presentation of the dynamics of ESV, which may give insight into understanding the possible impacts of land use change on ESV and provide information for land use planning. (2) Land use polices can affect the magnitude and location of ESV both directly and indirectly. Land use changes tend to weaken and simplify ecosystem service functions and values of landscape at urban rural fringe where land use change is more intensive. (3) The application of the methodology has proved that the integration of currently existing models within a single modeling framework could be a beneficial exploration, and should be encouraged and enhanced in the future research on the changing dynamics of ESV due to the complexity of ecosystem services and land use system.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the ‘‘National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71073055).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China

    Meng Wu, Xiangyu Ren, Yue Che & Kai Yang

  2. Ecological and Environmental Sciences School, East China Normal University, No. 500 Dongchuan Road, Shanghai, 200241, China

    Yue Che

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  1. Meng Wu
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Correspondence to Yue Che.

Appendix

Appendix

See Figs. 9 and 10.

Fig. 9
figure 9

The simulating results of land use allocation of the study area

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Fig. 10
figure 10

Spatial pattern of ESV for the simulated land use

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Wu, M., Ren, X., Che, Y. et al. A Coupled SD and CLUE-S Model for Exploring the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in Baoshan District, Shanghai, China. Environmental Management 56, 402–419 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0512-2

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