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Simulating Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Amazonia: Impacts in Brazil’s Roraima State from Reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho)

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Abstract

Reconstruction of Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) would allow for access from the “arc of deforestation” in the southern part of Brazil’s Amazon region to vast blocks of forests in central and northern Amazonia. Building roads is known to be a major driver of deforestation, allowing entry of squatters, and other actors. Rather than deforestation along the highway route, here we consider the road’s potential for stimulating deforestation in a separate location, approximately 550 km north of BR-319’s endpoint in Manaus. Reconstructing BR-319 has great potential impact to start a new wave of migration to this remote region. The southern portion of the state of Roraima, the focus of our study, is already connected to Manaus by Highway BR-174. We modeled deforestation in southern Roraima and simulated carbon emissions between 2007 and 2030 under four scenarios. Simulations used the AGROECO model in DINAMICA-EGO © software. Two scenarios were considered with reconstruction of BR-319 and two without this road connection. For each of the two possibilities regarding BR-319, simulations were developed for (1) a “conservation” (CONSERV) scenario that assumes the creation of a series of protected areas, and (2) a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario that assumes no additional protected areas. Results show that by 2030, with BR-319 rebuilt, deforestation carbon emissions would increase between 19 % (CONSERV) and 42 % (BAU) over and above those corresponding to no-road scenarios.

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Acknowledgments

The National Council of Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq: proc. 557152/2005-4, 474548/2006-6; 305880/2007-1), the Amazonas Foundation for the Support of Research (FAPEAM), the GEOMA network and the National Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA) contributed logistical and financial support. G.C. Carrero helped in the field activities. We thank the editors and five reviewers for their helpful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Institute Research in Amazonia (INPA), Av. André Araújo, 2936, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP: 69067-375, Brazil

    Paulo Eduardo Barni, Philip Martin Fearnside & Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro Graça

  2. State University of Roraima (UERR), Rodovia BR-210, Km 70, São João da Baliza, Roraima, CEP: 69375-000, Brazil

    Paulo Eduardo Barni

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  1. Paulo Eduardo Barni
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  2. Philip Martin Fearnside
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  3. Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro Graça
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Correspondence to Philip Martin Fearnside.

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Barni, P.E., Fearnside, P.M. & Graça, P.M.L.A. Simulating Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Amazonia: Impacts in Brazil’s Roraima State from Reconstructing Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho). Environmental Management 55, 259–278 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0408-6

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