Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Simulating Land-Cover Change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We used the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE-s) model to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia (MMSEA), a region in the midst of transformation due to rapid intensification of agriculture and expansion of regional trade markets. Simulated changes affected approximately 10 % of the MMSEA landscape between 2001 and 2025 and 16 % between 2001 and 2050. Roughly 9 % of the current vegetation, which consists of native species of trees, shrubs, and grasses, is projected to be replaced by tree plantations, tea, and other evergreen shrubs during the 50 years period. Importantly, 4 % of this transition is expected to be due to the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), a tree plantation crop that may have important implications for local-to-regional scale hydrology because of its potentially high water consumption in the dry season.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bruun TB, De Neergaard A, Lawrence D, Ziegler AD (2009) Environmental consequences of the demise in swidden agriculture in SE Asia: soil nutrients and carbon stocks. Hum Ecol 37:375–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castella J, Verburg PH (2007) Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam. Ecol Model 202:410–420

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy JP (1993) Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (bats) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. In: Technical report, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder

  • Economic Intelligence Unit (2004a) Country profile 2004: Myanmar (Burma). The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Economic Intelligence Unit (2004b) Country profile 2004: Vietnam. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Economic Intelligence Unit (2005a) Country profile 2005: Cambodia. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Economic Intelligence Unit (2005b) Country profile 2005: China. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Economic Intelligence Unit (2005c) Country profile 2005: Laos. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Economic Intelligence Unit (2005d) Country profile 2005: Thailand. The Economic Intelligence Unit Limited, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Engelsman W (2002) Simulating land-use changes in an urbanizing area in Malaysia: an application of the CLUE-s model in the Selangor river basin. Research thesis paper. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen

    Google Scholar 

  • Fox J, Vogler J (2005) Land-use and land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia. Environ Manage 36(3):394–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fox J, McMahon D, Poffenberger M, Vogler J (2008) Land use and tenure change in Ratanakiri: 1989–2007. Community Forestry International, Phnom Penh

    Google Scholar 

  • Friedl MA, McIver DK, Hodges JCF, Zhang XY, Muchoney D, Strahler AH, Woodcock CE, Gopal S, Schneider A, Cooper A, Baccini A, Gao F, Schaaf C (2002) Global land cover mapping from MODIS: algorithms and early results. Remote Sens Environ 83(1–2):287–302

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujita Y, Phanvilay K (2008) Land and forest allocation in Lao people’s democratic republic: comparison of case studies from community-based natural resource management research. Soc Nat Res 21(2):120–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giambelluca TW, Tran LT, Ziegler AD, Menard TP, Nullet MA (1996) Soil-vegetation-atmosphere processes: simulation and field measurement for deforested sites in northern Thailand. J Geophys Res 101:25867–25885

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guardiola-Claramonte M, Troch PA, Ziegler AD, Giambelluca TW, Vogler JB, Nullet MA (2008) Local hydrologic effects of introducing non-native vegetation in a tropical catchment. Ecohydrology 1:13–22. doi:10.1002/eco.3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guardiola-Claramonte M, Troch PA, Ziegler AD, Giambelluca TW, Durcik M, Vogler JB, Nullet MA (2010) Modeling basin-scale hydrologic effects of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in a tropical catchment. Ecohydrology 3(3):306–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo H, Padoch C, Coffey K, Aiguo C, Yongneng F (2002) Economic development, land use and biodiversity change in the tropical mountains of Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, southwest China. Environ Sci Policy 5:471–479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li HM, Aide TM, Ma YX, Liu XJ, Cao M (2007) Demand for rubber is causing the loss of high diversity rainforest in SW China. Biodivers Conserv 16:1731–1745

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maekawa T (2002) Road link makes dream possible. ADB Rev 9–10

  • Padoch C, Coffey K, Mertz O, Leisz S, Fox J, Wadley R (2007) The demise of swidden in southeast Asia? Local realities and regional ambiguities. Dan J Geogr 107(1):29–42

    Google Scholar 

  • Rerkasem K, Lawrence D, Padoch C, Schmidt-Vogt D, Ziegler AD (2009) Consequences of swidden transitions for crop and fallow biodiversity. Hum Ecol 37:347–360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rigg J (2006) Land, farming, livelihoods and poverty: rethinking the links in the rural south. World Dev 34(1):180–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rigg J, Nattapoolwat S (2001) Embracing the global in Thailand: activism and pragmatism in an era of de-agrarianisation. World Dev 29(6):945–960

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider RR (1994) Government and the economy on the Amazon frontier. In: Latin America and the Caribbean technical department. World Bank, Washington D.C

  • Sen OL, Bozkurt D, Fox J, Vogler JB, Giambelluca TW, Ziegler AD (2011a) Projected impacts of global warming on regional climate in southeast Asia. Clim Dyn (in review)

  • Sen OL, Vogler JB, Ziegler AD, Fox J, Giambelluca TW (2011b) Climatic effects of anthropogenic changes in Montane mainland southeast Asia: land cover / land use change simulations. Clim Chang (in review)

  • Sen OL, Wang L, Wang B (2004) Impact of Indochina deforestation on the East-Asian summer monsoon. J Climate 17:1366–1380

    Google Scholar 

  • Soepboer W (2001) CLUE-s: an application for Sibuyan island, the Philippines. Research thesis paper. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen

    Google Scholar 

  • Sturgeon JC (2010) Governing minorities and development in Xishuangbanna, China: Akha and Dai rubbers farmers as entrepreneurs. Geoforum 42(2):318–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sunderlin W, Huynh TB (2005) Poverty alleviation and forests in Vietnam. CIFOR, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Thant M, Nair O (2002) Linking nations coast to coast. ADB Rev 14–16

  • Thomas D, Ekasingh B, Ekasingh M, Lebel L, Ha HM, Ediger L, Thongmanivong S, Xu J, Sangchyoswat C, Nyberg Y (2008) Comparative assessment of resource and market access of the poor in upland zones of the greater Mekong region. World Agroforestry Center, Chiang Mai

    Google Scholar 

  • Thongmanivong S, Fujita Y, Fox J (2005) Resource use dynamics and land-cover change in Ang Nhai village and Phou Phanang national reserve forest, Lao PDR. Environ Manag 36(3):382–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNEP-WCMC (2005) World database on protected areas. http://www.wdpa.org/

  • Veldkamp A, Fresco L (1996) CLUE-CR: an integrated multi-scale model to simulate land use change scenarios in Costa Rica. Ecol Model 91:231–248

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Veldkamp A, Fresco L (1997a) Exploring land use scenarios: an alternative approach based on actual land use. Agric Syst 55:1–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Veldkamp A, Fresco L (1997b) Reconstructing land use drivers and their spatial scale dependence for Costa Rica (1973 and 1984). Agric Syst 55:19–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH (2006) Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) model. In: Geist H (ed) Our earth’s changing land: an encyclopedia of land-use and land-cover change, vol 1(A–K). Greenwood Press, Westport, pp 144–146

  • Verburg PH, Veldkamp A (2004) Projecting land use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales. Landsc Ecol 19:77–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, de Koning GHJ, Kok K, Veldkamp TA, Bouma J (1999a) A spatial allocation procedure for the modeling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use. Ecol Model 116:45–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, Veldkamp A, Fresco LO (1999b) Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China. Appl Geogr 19:211–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, Limpiada R, Espaldon V, Mastura SSA (2002) Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-s model. Environ Manag 30(3):391–405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, de Groot WT, Veldkamp A (2003) Methodology for multi-scale land-use change modelling: concepts and challenges. In: Dolman AJ, Verhagen A, Rovers CA (eds) Global environmental change and land use. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London, pp 17–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Verburg PH, Schulp CJE, Witte N, Veldkamp A (2006) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:39–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wassenaar T, Gerber P, Verburg PH, Rosales M, Ibrahim M, Steinfeld H (2007) Projecting land use changes in the neotropics: the geography of pasture forest expansion. Glob Environ Change 17:86–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willemen L (2002) Modelling of land-cover changes with CLUE-s in Bac Kan province, Vietnam. Research thesis paper. Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu J (2006) The political, social and ecological transformation of a landscape: the case of rubber in Xishuangbanna, China. Mt Res Dev 26(3):254–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu J, Fox J, Zhang P, Fu Y, Yang L, Qian J, Leisz S, Vogler J (2005) Land-use/land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in Xishuangbanna. Environ Manag 36(3):404–413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ziegler AD, Bruun TB, Guardiola-Claramonte M, Giambelluca TW, Lawrence D, Lam Nguyen Thanh (2009a) Environmental consequences of the demise in swidden agriculture in SE Asia: hydrology and geomorphology. Hum Ecol 37:361–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ziegler AD, Fox JM, Xu J (2009b) The rubber juggernaut. Science 324:1024–1025

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ziegler AD, Fox JM, Webb EL, Padoch C, Leisz S, Cramb RA, Mertz O, Bruun TT, Vien TD (2011) Rapid land use changes and the role of swiddening in SE Asia. Conserv Biol 25:846–848

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. East–West Center, 1601 East–West Road, Honolulu, HI, 96848, USA

    Jefferson Fox

  2. Geography and Earth Sciences, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC, USA

    John B. Vogler

  3. Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

    Omer L. Sen

  4. Department of Geography, University of Hawaii, Manoa, HI, USA

    Thomas W. Giambelluca

  5. Department of Geography, National University Singapore, 1 Arts Link, Kent Ridge, Singapore, Singapore

    Alan D. Ziegler

Authors
  1. Jefferson Fox
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. John B. Vogler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Omer L. Sen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Thomas W. Giambelluca
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Alan D. Ziegler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jefferson Fox.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fox, J., Vogler, J.B., Sen, O.L. et al. Simulating Land-Cover Change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia. Environmental Management 49, 968–979 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9828-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9828-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation