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Linking Models of Land Use, Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE)

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Abstract

We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage.

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Acknowledgments

The ALPSCAPE project is part of the Swiss National Research Program “Landscape and Habitats of the Alps” (NRP48), financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (Nr. 4048-064441). We are grateful to Corina Lardelli, Koko Warner, and Roland Meister for valuable comments on the manuscript and to Silvia Dingwall for improving the English language.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Unit Ecosystem Boundaries, WSL: Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, CH-7260, Davos, Switzerland

    Corinne Lundström, Ariane Walz, Adrienne Gret-Regamey & Peter Bebi

  2. Regional Resource Management, Institute for Spatial and Landscape Planning, Swiss Federal Institute for Technology, CH-8092, Zürich, ETH

    Susanne Kytzia & Adrienne Gret-Regamey

Authors
  1. Corinne Lundström
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  2. Susanne Kytzia
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  3. Ariane Walz
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  4. Adrienne Gret-Regamey
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  5. Peter Bebi
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Correspondence to Corinne Lundström.

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Lundström, C., Kytzia, S., Walz, A. et al. Linking Models of Land Use, Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE). Environmental Management 40, 379–393 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-005-0342-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-005-0342-8

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