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A Risk-Based Predictive Tool to Prevent Accidental Introductions of Nonindigenous Marine Species

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Abstract

Preventing the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) is the most efficient way to avoid the costs and impacts of biological invasions. The transport of fouling species on ship hulls is an important vector for the introduction of marine NIS. We use quantitative risk screening techniques to develop a predictive tool of the abundance and variety of organisms being transported by ocean-going yachts. We developed and calibrated an ordinal rank scale of the abundance of fouling assemblages on the hulls of international yacht hulls arriving in New Zealand. Fouling ranks were allocated to 783 international yachts that arrived in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Classification tree analysis was used to identify relationships between the fouling ranks and predictor variables that described the maintenance and travel history of the yachts. The fouling ranks provided reliable indications of the actual abundance and variety of fouling assemblages on the yachts and identified most (60%) yachts that had fouling on their hulls. However, classification tree models explained comparatively little of the variation in the distribution of fouling ranks (22.1%), had high misclassification rates (∼43%), and low predictive power. In agreement with other studies, the best model selected the age of the toxic antifouling paint on yacht hulls as the principal risk factor for hull fouling. Our study shows that the transport probability of fouling organisms is the result of a complex suite of interacting factors and that large sample sizes will be needed for calibration of robust risk models.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Kevin Kennett (MAF Quarantine Service) for facilitating the involvement of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in this collaborative study. Special thanks to the MAF Quarantine officers who collected data on nearly 800 international yachts arriving in New Zealand: Mike Cartwright, Brian Whimp, and Peter Lord (Opua and Whangarei), Grant Weston (Tauranga), and Neville Moore (Auckland). Thanks are also due to Nick Gust, Crispin Middleton, and Matt Smith for their help in the field during the calibration of the HullCam, and to the Opua, Town Basin, Westhaven, Bayswater, and Gulf Harbour marinas in Opua, Whangarei, and Auckland for their support of this work. Ton Snelder, Drew Lohrer, David Secord, and two anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments on an earlier manuscript. This study was funded by NIWA NSOF projects PDEA035, NPDA045, and NNRY045.

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  1. National Centre for Aquatic Biodiversity and Biosecurity , National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 8602, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Oliver Floerl, Graeme J. Inglis & Barbara J. Hayden

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  1. Oliver Floerl
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  2. Graeme J. Inglis
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  3. Barbara J. Hayden
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Correspondence to Oliver Floerl.

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Floerl, O., Inglis, G.J. & Hayden, B.J. A Risk-Based Predictive Tool to Prevent Accidental Introductions of Nonindigenous Marine Species. Environmental Management 35, 765–778 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-004-0193-8

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