Abstract
Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the US Geological Survey, the National Park Service, and the US Environmental Protection Agency for funding to complete this research. Special thanks are extended to Carl Zimmerman and Mark Duffy of Assateague Island National Seashore for their help and insight in completing this study. In addition, the authors would like to thank Susan Hughes of the Worcester County, Maryland Health Department for providing the domestic-well nitrate concentration data used in this study. The US Environmental Protection Agency, through its Office of Research and Development, partly funded and collaborated in the research described in this manuscript under Interagency Agreement number DW 14939071 to the US Geological Survey. The manuscript has been subjected to agency review and approved for publication.
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LaMotte, A.E., Greene, E.A. Spatial analysis of land use and shallow groundwater vulnerability in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA. Environ Geol 52, 1413–1421 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0583-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0583-8