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Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

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Environmental Geology

Abstract

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology-Geography, Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Group, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Redingenstraat 16, 3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Marijke Huysmans & Alain Dassargues

  2. Department of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology, University of Miskolc, Miskolc, Hungary

    Tamás Madarász

  3. Department of Georesources, Geotechnologies and Building Materials (GEOMAC), Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, University of Liège, 52/3, Liège, Belgium

    Alain Dassargues

Authors
  1. Marijke Huysmans
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  2. Tamás Madarász
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  3. Alain Dassargues
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Correspondence to Marijke Huysmans.

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Huysmans, M., Madarász, T. & Dassargues, A. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis. Environ Geol 50, 180–193 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0197-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0197-1

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