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Joint estimation of the Lerner index and cost efficiency using copula methods

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Abstract

This paper deals with the estimation of market power, measured by the Lerner index, and cost efficiency at the bank level, using the stochastic frontier (SF) methodology. Both market power and cost efficiency are estimated jointly in a single step. We use the copula method to incorporate dependence between market power and cost efficiency. In contrast to earlier works that used a two-step approach, the SF approach used herein estimates a bank-specific nonnegative Lerner index free from random shocks. We showcase the advantages of our proposed methodology in terms of an empirical study on the banking sectors of five former communist countries during the period 2000–2008. Compared to the conventional approach, our model gives higher mean values of the Lerner index and smaller standard deviations. Further, we find a significant positive relationship between cost efficiency and market power of banks, thereby rejecting the “quiet life hypothesis.”

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  1. Berger et al. (2004), Maudos and Fernández de Guevara (2004, 2007), Fernández de Guevara et al. (2005), Beck et al. (2006), and Alegria and Schaeck (2008) show the limitations of using concentration measures as indicators for the degree of competition in the banking industry.

  2. The H-statistic has been popularly used as a direct measure of the degree of competition in the recent literature on bank competition. See for example, Bikker and Groeneveld (2000), De Bandt and Davis (2000), Bikker and Haaf (2002), Gelos and Roldós (2004), Claessens and Laeven (2004), Al-Muharrami et al. (2006), Casu and Girardone (2006), Staikouras and Koutsomanoli-Fillipaki (2006), Yeyati and Micco (2007), Turk-Ariss (2009), Carbó et al. (2009), and Delis (2010), among others.

  3. See for example, Prescott and McCall (1975) for US banks; Shaffer (1993) for Canadian banks; Carbó et al. (2003) for Spain; Angelini and Cetorelli (2003) for Italian banks; Carbó et al. (2009), Fernández de Guevara et al. (2005, 2007), and Maudos and Fernández de Guevara (2004, 2007) for the cases of European countries; Berger et al. (2009) for the case of 23 different industrial countries; Turk-Ariss (2010) for developing countries; and Agoraki et al. (2011) for the case of 13 CEE transition countries.

  4. Agoraki et al. (2011) claim that if the index is equal to 1, then the market is a pure monopoly.

  5. This corresponds to a negative value of the H-statistic in the PR model.

  6. Like the stochastic cost frontier, the stochastic output price frontier is defined as P = MC + noise which gives the minimum price that a firm charges without market power. The noise term is added to include possible measurement error in P.

  7. They apply the model to study Taiwan’s hotel industry and simultaneously estimate two production frontiers, representing the technologies of accommodation and restaurant divisions of a hotel.

  8. The copula approach, introduced by Sklar (1959), has been widely employed in multivariate analysis and recently extended to the area of productivity and efficiency analysis, e.g., Smith (2008), Carta and Steel (2012), Shi and Zhang (2011), and Amsler et al. (2014).

  9. See, for example, Gelos and Roldós (2004), Drakos and Konstantinou (2005), Fries and Taci (2005), Mamatzakis et al. (2005), Yildirim and Philippatos (2007), and Delis (2010), among others.

  10. Note that the adjusted Lerner index proposed by Koetter et al. (2012) is expressed as \(L_{it}^\mathrm{adjusted} =(\mathrm{AR}_{it} -\mathrm{MC}_{it})/\mathrm{AR}_{it}\), where \(\mathrm{AR}_{it} \) denotes the estimated average revenue that is equal to the ratio of predicted total costs (TC) from (2) plus predicted total profits (TP) derived from an alternative profit function to total assets, i.e., \(\mathrm{AR}_{it} =(\mathrm{TC}_{it} +\mathrm{TP}_{it} )/\mathrm{TA}_{it} \).

  11. See, e.g., Berg and Kim (1994), Angelini and Cetorelli (2003), Berger et al. (2009), and Turk-Ariss (2010), who define total assets as the single output.

  12. This conditional expectation is \(E\left( {u_{1it} |\varepsilon _{1it}}\right) =\mu _{1^{*}it} +\sigma _{1^{*}} \frac{\phi \left( {-\mu _{1^{*}it} /\sigma _{1^{*}}}\right) }{1-\Phi \left( {-\mu _{1^{*} it} /\sigma _{1^{*}}}\right) }\), where \(\sigma _{1^{*}}^2 ={\sigma _{1u}^{2} \sigma _{1v}^2}/{\sigma _1^2}, \sigma _1^2 =\sigma _{1u}^{2} +\sigma _{1v}^2, \mu _{1^{*} it}=-\sigma _{1u}^{2}\varepsilon _{1it}/{\sigma _1^2}\), and \(\phi (.)\) and \(\Phi (.)\) are the PDF and CDF of the standard normal random variable, respectively (see Kumbhakar and Lovell 2000 for details).

  13. In a non-competitive market, one can show that \(\mathrm{MR}=P\left( {1+1/e} \right) \), where \(e (\le 0)\) denotes the price elasticity of demand. By equating MC = MR, we obtain \(\frac{P-\mathrm MC}{P}=\frac{1}{-e}\), which relates the Lerner index to the price elasticity of demand.

  14. There are several papers that impose regularity (monotonicity and concavity) conditions on a cost function (Griffiths et al. 2000; Terrell 1996) that can guarantee \(\mathrm{MC}\ge 0\). However, the Lerner index is implied by equation (4): \(P\ge \mathrm{MR}= \mathrm{MC}\), or equivalently, \(P-MC\ge 0\). Since P does not appear in the cost function, it is not clear whether the above inequality constraint can be directly imposed on the cost function of (2). Even if it is done, since \(P-MC\) can be affected by measurement error in P, it may not be appropriate to use the difference (normalized by P) to estimate the Lerner index.

  15. For example, a large bank may decide to take predatory pricing to drive competitors out of the market.

  16. The correlation in the composed errors may stem from (1) the correlation between \(v_{1}\) and \(v_{2}\), and (2) the correlation between \(u_{1}\) and \(u_{2}\). Unfortunately, we are unable to separate these two sources of correlation in our model. We would argue, in terms of our application, that \(v_1\) and \(v_2\) are not correlated because \(v_2\) represents noise in output price, whereas \(v_1\) is the noise in cost, and therefore, there may not be anything common between them. Since we are not certain on this, we investigate the nexus between market power and cost efficiency in Sect. 3.3 by testing the quiet life hypothesis.

  17. Note that the joint estimation of (2) and (5) will give parameter estimates in (2), \(\sigma _{u2}^{2}\) and \(\sigma _{v2}^2\) in (5), and the correlation coefficient between (2) and (5), to be specified shortly.

  18. For a detailed presentation of copula functions, readers are suggested to refer to Sklar (1959), Joe (1997), Frees and Valdez (1998), Cherubini et al. (2004), and Nelsen (2006).

  19. The analysis can be easily generalized to cases with higher dimensions above two, which are more complicated and require more elaboration, as discussed in Aas et al. (2009).

  20. See Chap. 4.8.1 of Cherubini et al. (2004) for a detailed description on the Gaussian copula. Amsler et al. (2014) point out an important feature of copula functions, i.e., they contain different range of dependence. The Gaussian, Frank, and Plackett copulas are comprehensive copulas, covering the entire range of dependence, while the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern copula can model limited correlations, ranging between about −0.3 and +0.3.

  21. Although this article assumes that the composed error terms are independent over time, the parameter estimates from such quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation are consistent even when the dependence exists, so long as the likelihood for each observation is correctly specified. Note that the conventional standard errors are invalid and need to be modified. Based on (12), the standard ML estimator has the inverse of the Fisher information matrix \(I\left( {\varvec{\theta }} \right) =-E\left( \partial ^{2}\ln L\left( {\varvec{\theta }} \right) /\partial {\varvec{\theta }}\,\partial {{\varvec{\theta }}}' \right) \) as the covariance matrix of the estimator \({\hat{{\varvec{\theta }}}}\). The covariance matrix of the QML estimators has the so-called sandwich form: \(I^{-1}\left( {{\varvec{\theta }}}\right) E\left[ S\left( {{\varvec{\theta }}}\right) {S}'\left( {{\varvec{\theta }}} \right) \right] I^{-1}\left( {{\varvec{\theta }}}\right) \), where \(S\left( {\varvec{\theta }}\right) =\partial \ln L\left( {\varvec{\theta }}\right) /\partial {\varvec{\theta }}\) is the score function. Johnston and DiNardo (1997), pp. 428–430, provide a brief discussion of the QML estimation of misspecified models and the derivation of the covariance matrix.

  22. Readers are suggested to refer to the appendix of Tsay et al. (2013) for a detailed derivation of \(I_\mathrm{app} (Q_i)\).

  23. The monotonicity condition requires \(\partial \mathrm{TC}/\partial W_k \ge 0,\forall k\). The concavity condition requires the cost function to be concave in input prices, i.e., the Hessian matrix is negative semi-definite. Readers are suggested to refer to, e.g., Varian (1992), for those properties of the cost function.

  24. The estimation results for the standard model are not shown to save space, but are available upon request from the authors.

  25. We also estimate a simplified model that imposes the independence assumption between \(\varepsilon _1\) and \(\varepsilon _2\) in (2) and (5). The results show more violations of the regularity conditions compared to the CSSFM.

  26. Another possible explanation is that even though they have more or less market power, the incumbent banks might set their output prices close to the competitive level due to the risk of potential entrants, complying with the feature of a contestable market.

  27. The parameter estimates of the alternative profit frontier are not shown to save space, but are available upon request from the authors.

  28. The quiet life hypothesis posits that the higher a firm’s market power is, the lower is the effort by managers to achieve maximum operating efficiencies, and so there is a negative relationship between the degree of market power and managerial efficiency.

  29. Most of the previous studies that tested the quiet life hypothesis mainly focus on banking systems in developed countries. For example, Berger and Hannan (1998) and Koetter et al. (2012) study US banking; Maudos and Fernández de Guevara (2007) and Delis and Tsionas (2009) examine European banking; Turk-Ariss (2010) explore the banking industries of 60 developing countries.

  30. We also examine the association for each country and find the slope parameters to be positive and significant, ranging from 0.12 to 0.39, except for Latvia’s slope parameter estimate that is as low as 0.07 and insignificant. It is worth mentioning that if we regress the conventional measure of the Lerner index on technical efficiencies, then the estimate of the slope parameter is as low as 0.056, although significant at the 1 % level.

  31. Maudos and Fernández de Guevara (2007) provide several reasons to explain this positive effect.

  32. Berger and Hannan (1998) utilize the Herfindahl–Hirschman index to represent market power.

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Huang, TH., Liu, NH. & Kumbhakar, S.C. Joint estimation of the Lerner index and cost efficiency using copula methods. Empir Econ 54, 799–822 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1216-z

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