Abstract
This article assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey in question is conducted by Prospera once every quarter and consists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisations. The article shows that inflation expectations measured in this survey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Moreover, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outperformed by a simple autoregressive model. Given that the true inflation expectations are captured by the survey, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal.
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Jonsson, T., Österholm, P. The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. Empir Econ 42, 79–94 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0428-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-010-0428-x