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Quantifying economic effects of transportation investment considering spatiotemporal heterogeneity in China: a spatial panel data model perspective

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Abstract

Transportation investment plays a significant role in promoting economic development. However, in what scenario and to what extent transportation investment can stimulate economic growth still remains debatable. For developing countries undergoing rapid urbanization, answering these questions is necessary for evaluating proposals and determining investment plans, especially considering the heterogeneity of spatiotemporal conditions. Current literature lacks systematical research to consider the impacts of panel data and spatial correlation issue in examining the economic effects of transportation investment. To fill this gap, this study collects provincial panel data in China from 1997 to 2015 to evaluate multi-level temporal and spatial effects of transportation investment on economic growth by using spatial panel data analysis. Results show that transportation investment leads to significant and positive effects on growth and spatial concentration of economic activities, but these results vary significantly depending on the temporal and spatial characteristics of each province. The economic impacts of transportation investment are quite positive even considering the time lag effects. This study suggests that both central and local governments should carefully evaluate the multifaceted economic effects of transportation investment, such as a balanced transportation investment and economic development between growing and lagging regions, and considering the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the economic environment.

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Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/

Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Source: Calculated in GeoDa by authors

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Notes

  1. According to differences in topography and economic development, Mainland China is usually divided into Eastern China (EC), Central China (CC) and Western China (WC). In this study, EC includes Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan; CC includes Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangxi, and Hunan; the remainder belongs to WC.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. 19YJC790074), the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province (Grant No. LQ19D010003), Soft Science Foundation of Ningbo (Grant No. 2018A10018), and the K. C. Wong Magna Fund from Ningbo University. The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their insightful suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Donghai Institute of Ningbo University, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, Zhejiang, China

    Xiongbin Lin

  2. Department of Geography and Spatial Information Technology, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, Zhejiang, China

    Xiongbin Lin

  3. School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China

    Ian MacLachlan

  4. HSBC Business School, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China

    Ting Ren

  5. Department of Urban Design and Planning, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA

    Feiyang Sun

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Correspondence to Xiongbin Lin.

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Lin, X., MacLachlan, I., Ren, T. et al. Quantifying economic effects of transportation investment considering spatiotemporal heterogeneity in China: a spatial panel data model perspective. Ann Reg Sci 63, 437–459 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-019-00937-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-019-00937-8

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