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Advantage of single-trial models for response to selection in wheat breeding multi-environment trials

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Abstract

An investigation was conducted to evaluate the impact of experimental designs and spatial analyses (single-trial models) of the response to selection for grain yield in the northern grains region of Australia (Queensland and northern New South Wales). Two sets of multi-environment experiments were considered. One set, based on 33 trials conducted from 1994 to 1996, was used to represent the testing system of the wheat breeding program and is referred to as the multi-environment trial (MET). The second set, based on 47 trials conducted from 1986 to 1993, sampled a more diverse set of years and management regimes and was used to represent the target population of environments (TPE). There were 18 genotypes in common between the MET and TPE sets of trials. From indirect selection theory, the phenotypic correlation coefficient between the MET and TPE single-trial adjusted genotype means [r p(MT)] was used to determine the effect of the single-trial model on the expected indirect response to selection for grain yield in the TPE based on selection in the MET. Five single-trial models were considered: randomised complete block (RCB), incomplete block (IB), spatial analysis (SS), spatial analysis with a measurement error (SSM) and a combination of spatial analysis and experimental design information to identify the preferred (PF) model. Bootstrap-resampling methodology was used to construct multiple MET data sets, ranging in size from 2 to 20 environments per MET sample. The size and environmental composition of the MET and the single-trial model influenced the r p(MT). On average, the PF model resulted in a higher r p(MT) than the IB, SS and SSM models, which were in turn superior to the RCB model for MET sizes based on fewer than ten environments. For METs based on ten or more environments, the r p(MT) was similar for all single-trial models.

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Acknowledgements

The contributions of the field trial staff at the Leslie Research Centre, Toowoomba, and the Plant Breeding Institute, Narrabri, are gratefully acknowledged. We greatly appreciate the assistance of Dr. Dean Podlich with the BOOTSSE software and automation of the bootstrap analysis. Comments by the referees were helpful and resulted in an improved version of this manuscript. The Grain Research Development Corporation of Australia funded this research.

Author information

Author notes

  1. C. G. Qiao

    Present address: Statistics New Zealand, P.O. Box 2722, Wellington, New Zealand

  2. M. Cooper

    Present address: Pioneer Hi-Bred International Inc., 7300 N.W. 62nd Ave., P.O. Box 1004, Johnston, IA 50131, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Land and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    C. G. Qiao, K. E. Basford, I. H. DeLacy & M. Cooper

Authors
  1. C. G. Qiao
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  2. K. E. Basford
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  3. I. H. DeLacy
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  4. M. Cooper
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to K. E. Basford.

Additional information

Communicated by H.C. Becker

Appendix

Appendix

Description of the 80 wheat trials. The first 33 were used to represent the multi-environment trial (MET) regime, while the last 47 were used to represent the target population of environments (TPE) in the northern grains region.

Trial

Year

Location

Trial type

Design

Field layout

No. of lines

No. of Replicates

Preferred model (PF)a

1

1994

Biloela, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

l(row)+s(row)+AR1

2

1994

Jimbour, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

rep+blk/rep

3

1994

Meandarra, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

l(row)+blk/rep+AR1

4

1994

Oakeleigh, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

l(row)+blk/rep+AR1

5

1994

The Gum, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

blk/rep+AR1

6

1995

Billa Billa, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

l(row)+s(row)+rep+AR1

7

1995

Biloela, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

l(row)+s(row)+blk/rep+AR1

8

1995

Bungunya, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

l(row)+s(row)+blk/rep+AR1

9

1995

Tumaville, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

1×149

49

3

l(row)+s(row)+blk/rep+AR1

10

1994

Fernlees, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

7×21

49

3

fcol+frow+AR1×AR1

11

1994

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+row/rep+AR1×AR1

12

1995

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

frow+col+col/rep+AR1×AR1

13

1996

Billa Billa, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+rep+AR1×AR1

14

1996

Bungunya, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+l(row)+l(col)+AR1×AR1

15

1996

Fernlees, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+col/rep+AR1×AR1

16

1996

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

frow+col+AR1×AR1

17

1996

Jimbour, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+rep+AR1×AR1

18

1996

Moonie, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+AR1×AR1

19

1994

Moree, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

l(row)+l(col)+s(row)+s(col)+row/rep+AR1×AR1

20

1994

Myall Vale, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+AR1×AR1

21

1994

Narrabri, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+AR1×AR1

22

1994

Narrabri Late, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+AR1×AR1

23

1994

North Star, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+AR1×AR1

24

1994

Warren, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

5×15

25

3

fcol+frow+blk/rep+AR1×AR1

25

1995

Gilgandra, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

6×18

36

3

col+col/rep+row/rep+AR1×AR1

26

1995

Myall Vale, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

6×18

36

3

row+col+AR1×AR1

27

1995

North Star, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

6×18

36

3

fcol+frow+AR1×AR1

28

1996

Gilgandra, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

18×6

36

3

fcol+frow+rep+row/rep+AR1×AR1

29

1996

Moree, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

18×6

36

3

fcol+row+rep+AR1×AR1

30

1996

Myall Vale, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

18×6

36

3

fcol+frow+ AR1×AR1

31

1996

Narrabri, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

18×6

36

3

fcol+frow+rep+AR1×AR1

32

1996

North Star, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

18×6

36

3

fcol+row/rep+AR1×AR1

33

1996

Spring Ridge, NSW

Row-column

Triple lattice

18×6

36

3

fcol+rep+AR1×AR1

34

1988

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

73×2

55

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1×AR1+ nugget

35

1988

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

73×2

55

-

l(col)+row+s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

36

1988

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

73×2

21

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1

37

1988

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

79×2

55

-

l(col)+row+s(col)/row+AR1

38

1988

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

73×2

55

-

l(col)+row+s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

39

1988

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

37×2

21

-

l(col)+s(col)+AR1×AR1

40

1989

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

160×2

251

-

row+AR1×AR1

41

1989

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

160×2

251

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1×AR1

42

1989

Emerald, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

160×2

251

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1×AR1

43

1988

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

73×2

55

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1×AR1

44

1988

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

79×2

56

-

l(col)+row+s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

45

1988

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Long-face

Augmented

64×1

21

-

l(col)+rep+s(col)/rep+AR1

46

1988

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

73×2

54

-

l(col)+row +s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

47

1988

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

73×2

53

-

l(col)+s(col)+AR1×AR1

48

1988

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Long-face

Augmented

64×1

21

-

l(col)+AR1

49

1989

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

160×2

251

-

l(col)+s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

50

1989

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

160×2

251

-

l(col)+row+s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

51

1989

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

160×2

251

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1×AR1

52

1989

Kingthorpe, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

160×2

251

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1×AR1

53

1988

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

74×2

55

-

l(col)+s(col)+AR1×AR1

54

1988

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

74×2

55

-

l(col)+row+s(col)+AR1×AR1

55

1988

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

15×3

15

-

l(row)+l(col)+s(col)/row+s(row)/col+AR1×AR1

56

1988

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

15×3

15

-

l(col)+l(row)+s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

57

1989

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

54×6

246

-

l(col)+col/row+AR1×AR1

58

1989

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Augmented

54×6

251

-

l(col)+l(row)+col+s(col)+s(row)+AR1×AR1

59

1988

Biloela, Qld.

Long-face

Incomplete block

48×1

15

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)/rep+AR1

60

1988

Brookstead, Qld.

Long-face

Incomplete block

48×1

15

3

l(col)+s(col)/rep+AR1

61

1988

Fernlees, Qld.

Long-face

Incomplete block

48×1

15

3

blk/rep+AR1

62

1988

Jimbour, Qld.

Long-face

Incomplete block

48×1

15

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)/rep+AR1

63

1988

The Gum, Qld.

Long-face

Incomplete block

48×1

15

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)/rep+AR1

64

1988

Toobeah, Qld.

Long-face

Incomplete block

48×1

15

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)+AR1

65

1988

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Randomised complete block

15×2

15

2

l(col)+s(col)+AR1×AR1

66

1988

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Randomised complete block

15×2

15

2

l(col)+rep+s(col)/rep+AR1×AR1

67

1988

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Randomised complete block

15×2

15

2

rep+AR1×AR1

68

1986

Brookstead, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

7×21

49

3

l(col)+l(row)+rep+col/rep+s(row)/col+AR1×AR1

69

1986

Brookstead, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

7×21

49

3

l(col)+l(row)+rep+row/rep+col/rep

+s(row)/col+AR1×AR1

70

1986

Cecil Plains, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

7×21

49

3

l(col)+row/rep+col/rep+AR1×AR1

71

1986

Cecil Plains, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

7×21

49

3

l(col)+l(row)+s(col)/row+AR1×AR1

72

1987

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

21×7

49

3

l(row)+row+col/rep+s(row)/rep+AR1×AR1

73

1987

Gatton, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

21×7

49

3

l(col)+l(row)+row/rep+col/rep+s(row)

+s(col)/rep+AR1×AR1

74

1987

Tummaville, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

21×7

49

3

l(col)+l(row)+row/rep+col/rep+s(row)

+s(col)/rep+AR1×AR1

75

1987

Tummaville, Qld.

Row-column

Triple lattice

21×7

49

3

l(col)+l(row)+row+col/rep+s(col)/row+s(row)+AR1×AR1

76

1993

Gatton, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

147×1

49

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)/rep+AR1

77

1993

Inglestone, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

147×1

48

3

blk/rep+AR1

78

1993

Brookstead, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

147×1

49

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)+AR1

79

1993

Narrabri, NSW

Long-face

Triple lattice

147×1

47

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)+AR1

80

1993

Biloela, Qld.

Long-face

Triple lattice

147×1

49

3

l(col)+blk/rep+s(col)/rep+AR1

  1. arow, random row effect; row/rep, row within replicates effect; col/rep, column within replicates effect; blk/rep, block within replicates effect; col, random column effect; frow, fixed row effect; fcol, fixed column effect; rep, replicate effect; l(col), fixed linear column effect; l(row), fixed linear row effect; ARI, one-dimensional auto-regressive process; ARI×ARI, two-dimensional auto-regressive process; s(row), a random curvature component for rows, spline row effect; s(col), a random curvature component for columns, spline column effect; s(col)/rep, spline column within replicates effect; s(row)/rep, spline row within replicates effect; s(col)/row, spline column within rows effect; s(row)/col, spline row within columns effect; col/row, column within rows effect; row/col, row within columns effect; nugget, measurement error
  2. Note that a spline effect is fitted in two components—a fixed linear trend and a random curvature component

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Qiao, C.G., Basford, K.E., DeLacy, I.H. et al. Advantage of single-trial models for response to selection in wheat breeding multi-environment trials. Theor Appl Genet 108, 1256–1264 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00122-003-1541-4

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