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San Antonio heart study diabetes prediction model applicable to a Middle Eastern population? Tehran glucose and lipid study

  • Original Article
  • Published:
International Journal of Public Health

Abstract

Objectives

To assess the validity of the San Antonio heart study (SAHS) diabetes prediction model in a large representative Iranian population.

Methods

A risk function derived from data in the SAHS to predict the 7.5-year risk of diabetes, was tested for its ability to predict incident diabetes in 3,242 individuals aged ≥20 years. The performance or ability to accurately predict diabetes risk, of the SAHS function compared with the performance of risk functions developed specifically from the Tehran lipid and glucose study. Comparisons included goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration.

Results

The participants were followed for 6.3 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) for diabetes of SAHS model was 0.83 (95% CI 0.80–0.86). The model overestimated the risk of diabetes in TLGS population with the overall bias of 111%. After the recalibration, the model-predicted probability agreed well with the actual observed 6-year risk of diabetes.

Discussion and conclusion

The American SAHS was a prediction model for diabetes with good discrimination in an Iranian target population after calibration.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by grant No. 121 from the National Research Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran. We express our appreciation to the participants of district-13 of Tehran for their enthusiastic support in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, P.O. Box 19395-4763, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran

    Mohammadreza Bozorgmanesh, Farzad Hadaegh, Azadeh Zabetian & Fereidoun Azizi

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  1. Mohammadreza Bozorgmanesh
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  2. Farzad Hadaegh
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  3. Azadeh Zabetian
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  4. Fereidoun Azizi
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Correspondence to Farzad Hadaegh.

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Bozorgmanesh, M., Hadaegh, F., Zabetian, A. et al. San Antonio heart study diabetes prediction model applicable to a Middle Eastern population? Tehran glucose and lipid study. Int J Public Health 55, 315–323 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-010-0130-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-010-0130-y

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