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Predicting dissolved oxygen in the Chesapeake Bay: applications and implications

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Abstract

Eutrophic depletion of dissolved oxygen (DO) and its consequences for ecosystem dynamics have been a central theme of research, assessment and management policies for several decades in the Chesapeake Bay. Ongoing forecast efforts predict the extent of the summer hypoxic/anoxic area due to nutrient loads from the watershed. However, these models neither predict DO levels nor address the intricate interactions among various ecological processes. The prediction of spatially explicit DO levels in the Chesapeake Bay can eventually lead to a reliable depiction of the comprehensive ecological structure and functioning, and can also allow the quantification of the role of nutrient reduction strategies in water quality management. In this paper, we describe a three dimensional empirical model to predict DO levels in the Chesapeake Bay as a function of water temperature, salinity and dissolved nutrient concentrations (TDN and TDP). The residual analysis shows that predicted DO values compare well with observations. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and root mean square error-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) are used to evaluate the performance of the empirical model; the scores demonstrate the usability of model predictions (NSE, surface layer = 0.82–0.86; middle layer = 0.65–0.82; bottom layer = 0.70–0.82; RSR surface layer = 0.37–0.44; middle layer = 0.43–0.58 and bottom layer = 0.43–0.54). The predicted DO values and other physical outputs from downscaling of regional weather and climate predictions, or forecasts from hydrodynamic models, can be used to forecast various ecological components. Such forecasts would be useful for both recreational and commercial users of the Chesapeake Bay.

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Acknowledgments

We greatly acknowledge NOAA for supporting this work. The study that we present could not have been possible without the help of people from DNR and other PIs who have gathered the data over the years, which is entirely responsible for any value this research may hold. RM is also grateful to the Divecha Center for Climate Change and CAOS at IISc, Bangalore for their generous support and hospitality. We acknowledge Dr. Sujay Kaushal and anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court (Suite 4001), College Park, MD, 20740–3823, USA

    M. Bala Krishna Prasad & Raghu Murtugudde

  2. Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA

    Wen Long

  3. NOAA–Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, 904 South Morris Street, Oxford, MD, 21654, USA

    Xinsheng Zhang & Robert J. Wood

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  1. M. Bala Krishna Prasad
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Correspondence to M. Bala Krishna Prasad.

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Prasad, M.B.K., Long, W., Zhang, X. et al. Predicting dissolved oxygen in the Chesapeake Bay: applications and implications. Aquat Sci 73, 437–451 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00027-011-0191-x

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