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Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation

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Abstract

Historical records of the Chile (22 May 1960), Alaska (27 March 1964), and Tohoku (11 March 2011) tsunamis recorded along the Pacific Coast of Mexico are used to investigate the goodness of far-field tsunami modeling using a focal mechanism consisting in a uniform slip distribution on large thrust faults around the Pacific Ocean. The Tohoku 2011 tsunami records recorded by Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations, and at coastal tide stations, were used to validate transoceanic tsunami models applicable to the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco on the coast of Mexico. The amplitude resulting from synthetic tsunamis originated by Mw ~ 9.3 earthquakes around the Pacific varies from ~ 1 to ~ 2.5 m, depending on the tsunami origin region and on the directivity due to fault orientation and waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief.

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Acknowledgements

We thank both anonymous reviewers for their helpful review and fructiferous discussions. L.G. Ortiz-Huerta acknowledges support from CONACyT (México) through the Ph.D. program scholarship. DART sea level data are courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ETOPO2v2 are courtesy of the National Geophysical Data Center, 2006. M. Ortiz acknowledges J.M. Montoya of the Division of Coasts and Harbors of the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT) for providing high-resolution bathymetric data around the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco. The tsunami records along the coast of Mexico are courtesy of the Joint Sea Level Network Operations of Mexico, operated by CICESE, IMT, SEMAR, and UNAM.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Investigaciones Oceanológicas, Universidad, Autónoma de Baja California (UABC), Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico

    Laura G. Ortiz-Huerta

  2. Departamento de Oceanografía Física, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico

    Modesto Ortiz

  3. Facultad de Ciencias Marinas, Universidad, Autónoma de Baja California (UABC), Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico

    Alejandro García-Gastélum

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  1. Laura G. Ortiz-Huerta
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  2. Modesto Ortiz
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Correspondence to Modesto Ortiz.

Appendix

Appendix

1.1 Bathymetry

High resolution near shore bathymetry used in the tsunami model around the harbors of Ensenada, Manzanillo, and Acapulco (see Figs. 11, 12, 13).

Fig. 11
figure 11

Ensenada bathymetric map. Isobaths are indicated in meters referred to the mean sea level

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Fig. 12
figure 12

Manzanillo bathymetric map. Isobaths are indicated in meters referred to the mean sea level

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Fig. 13
figure 13

Acapulco bathymetric map. Isobaths are indicated in meters referred to the mean sea level

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1.2 Tsunami Directivity

The Tohoku 2011 tsunami is propagated in an ocean of uniform depth to illustrate the directivity due to fault orientation and the Earth’s sphericity effects (Fig. 14). In this case, the tsunami is focused on the direction perpendicular to the rupture length along the Great Circle towards the coast of Chile, where the amplitude of the wavefront decreases continuously up to a propagation distance of Δ90° due to the geometrical spreading of the wavefront. The amplitude recovers beyond this point towards the antipodal location (Δ180°) near the coast of Chile. In correspondence, tsunamis originated in southern Chile are focused towards Japan (cf., Okal et al. 2014) (see Fig. 14).

Fig. 14
figure 14

Directivity and Earth’s sphericity effects on the Tohoku 2011 tsunami propagated in a spherical ocean of uniform depth. Land contours are traced as a geographical reference

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The following examples illustrate the effect of waveform modification by prominent features of sea bottom relief, which focus the tsunami towards potential hot spots or sites where the tsunami is amplified:

  1. 1.

    A synthetic tsunami originated in the Aleutian Trench (Fig. 15a, b) would be focused towards the South Pole due to directivity and Earth’s sphericity effects; however, in a realistic bathymetry, the tsunami is also focused towards several hot spots along the Easter Pacific Coast.

    Fig. 15
    figure 15

    Tsunamis originated in the Aleutian and Tonga Trenches propagated in a spherical ocean of uniform depth (a, c) and in a spherical ocean with realistic bathymetry (b, d)

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  2. 2.

    A synthetic tsunami originated in the Tonga Trench (Fig. 15c, d) is also revealing hot spots along the coasts of Mexico and Chile, despite being mainly focused towards the coast of Peru.

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Ortiz-Huerta, L.G., Ortiz, M. & García-Gastélum, A. Far-Field Tsunami Hazard Assessment Along the Pacific Coast of Mexico by Historical Records and Numerical Simulation. Pure Appl. Geophys. 175, 1305–1323 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1816-y

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