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Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

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Abstract

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inundation reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 × 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to >10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

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Acknowledgments

Geodata by swisstopo was used with permission JA100119. The developers of the used open-source computer codes are gratefully acknowledged for sharing their code with the scientific community. Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Surface Waters, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, 8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland

    Michael Hilbe

  2. Institute of Geological Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Berne, Baltzerstrasse 1 + 3, 3012, Berne, Switzerland

    Michael Hilbe & Flavio S. Anselmetti

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Correspondence to Michael Hilbe.

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Hilbe, M., Anselmetti, F.S. Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments. Pure Appl. Geophys. 172, 545–568 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0907-7

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