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Near-Field ETAS Constraints and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment

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Abstract

The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) statistical model of aftershock seismicity combines various earthquake scaling relations to produce synthetic earthquake catalogs, or estimates of aftershock seismicity rates, based on recent earthquake activity. One challenge to ETAS-based hazard assessment is the large number of free parameters involved. In this paper, we introduce an approach to constrain this parameter space from canonical scaling relations, empirical observations, and fundamental physics. We show that ETAS parameters can be estimated as a function of an earthquake’s magnitude m based on the finite temporal and spatial extents of the rupture area. This approach facilitates fast ETAS-based estimates of seismicity from large “seed” catalogs, and it is particularly well suited to web-based deployment and otherwise automated implementations. It constitutes a significant improvement over contemporary ETAS by mitigating variability related to instrumentation and subjective catalog selection.

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Acknowledgments

This work has been supported by JPL Subcontract 1291967, and NASA Grant NNX08AF69G.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA

    Mark R. Yoder & John B. Rundle

  2. Department of Geology, University of California, Davis, CA, 95616, USA

    John B. Rundle

  3. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, 87501, USA

    John B. Rundle

  4. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, USA

    Margaret T. Glasscoe

Authors
  1. Mark R. Yoder
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  2. John B. Rundle
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  3. Margaret T. Glasscoe
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Correspondence to Mark R. Yoder.

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Yoder, M.R., Rundle, J.B. & Glasscoe, M.T. Near-Field ETAS Constraints and Applications to Seismic Hazard Assessment. Pure Appl. Geophys. 172, 2277–2293 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0785-z

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