Changes in the Diffuse CO₂ Emission and Relation to Seismic Activity in and around El Hierro, Canary Islands

Abstract

Significant changes in the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide were recorded in a geochemical station located at El Hierro, Canary Islands, before the occurrence of several seismic events during 2004. Two precursory CO₂ efflux increases started thirteen and nine days before two seismic events of magnitude 2.3 and 1.7, which took place near El Hierro Island, Canary Islands, on March 23 and April 15, reaching a maximun value of 51.1 and 46.2 g m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively, five and eight days before the two seismic events. Other similar increases started thirteen and five days before the occurrence of two seismic events of magnitude 1.3 and 1.5 which took place on October 15 and 21 respectively, reaching the maximum values four and one day before the earthquakes. These changes were not related to variations in atmospheric or soil parameters. The Material Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which analyzes the rate of precursory phenomena, was successfully applied to forecast the first seismic event that took place in El Hierro Island in 2004.