Uncertainty Analysis in Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling

Abstract

The concentration of a pollutant in the atmosphere is a random variable that cannot be predicted accurately, but can be described using quantities such as ensemble mean, variance, and probability distribution. There is growing recognition that the modeled concentrations of hazardous contaminants in the atmosphere should be described in a probabilistic framework. This paper discusses the various types of uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion models, and reviews sensitivity/uncertainty analysis methods to characterize and/or reduce them. Evaluation and quantification of the range of uncertainties in predictions yield a deeper insight into the capabilities and limitations of atmospheric dispersion models, and increase our confidence in decision-making based on models.