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Prognostic models in the clinical arena

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Abstract

Making a prognosis is to predict the course of a disease and estimate the probability (or risk) of the appearance of a given outcome in relationship to clinical or non-clinical characteristics. Prognostic assessment is usually modelled by multivariable mathematic equations (prognostic models). In this article we describe what a prognostic model is, how to build a good one, why and how it is important to evaluate its generalizability and accuracy by means of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CNR-IBIM, Clinical Epidemiology and Physiopathology of Renal Diseases and Hypertension, c/o Euroline di Ascrizzi Vincenzo, Via Vallone Petrara 55/57, 89124, Reggio Calabria, Italy

    Davide Bolignano, Claudia Torino, Graziella D’Arrigo, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Fabio Provenzano, Carmine Zoccali & Giovanni Tripepi

  2. Department of Geriatric and Internal Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center of Rotterdam, The Netherlands

    Francesco Mattace-Raso

Authors
  1. Davide Bolignano
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  2. Francesco Mattace-Raso
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  3. Claudia Torino
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  4. Graziella D’Arrigo
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  5. Samar Abd ElHafeez
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  6. Fabio Provenzano
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  7. Carmine Zoccali
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  8. Giovanni Tripepi
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Davide Bolignano.

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Bolignano, D., Mattace-Raso, F., Torino, C. et al. Prognostic models in the clinical arena. Aging Clin Exp Res 24, 300–304 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03325262

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03325262

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