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Surface N balances and reactive N loss to the environment from global intensive agricultural production systems for the period 1970–2030

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Abstract

Data for the historical years 1970 and 1995 and the FAO-Agriculture Towards 2030 projection are used to calculate N inputs (N fertilizer, animal manure, biological N fixation and atmospheric deposition) and the N export from the field in harvested crops and grass and grass consumption by grazing animals. In most industrialized countries we see a gradual increase of the overall N recovery of the intensive agricultural production systems over the whole 1970–2030 period. In contrast, low N input systems in many developing countries sustained low crop yields for many years but at the cost of soil fertility by depleting soil nutrient pools. In most developing countries the N recovery will increase in the coming decades by increasing efficiencies of N use in both crop and livestock production systems. The surface balance surplus of N is lost from the agricultural system via different pathways, including NH3 volatilization, denitrification, N2O and NO emissions, and nitrate leaching from the root zone. Global NH3-N emissions from fertilizer and animal manure application and stored manure increased from 18 to 34 Tg·yr−1 between 1970 and 1995, and will further increase to 44 Tg·yr−1 in 2030. Similar developments are seen for N2O-N (2.0 Tg·yr−1 in 1970, 2.7 Tg·yr−1 in 1995 and 3.5 Tg·yr−1 in 2030) and NO-N emissions (1.1 Tg·yr−1 in 1970,1.5 Tg·yr−1 in 1995 and 2.0 Tg·yr−1 in 2030).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    A. F. Bouwman & G. Van Drecht

  2. Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    K. W. van der Hoek

Authors
  1. A. F. Bouwman
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  2. G. Van Drecht
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  3. K. W. van der Hoek
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Correspondence to A. F. Bouwman.

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Bouwman, A.F., Van Drecht, G. & van der Hoek, K.W. Surface N balances and reactive N loss to the environment from global intensive agricultural production systems for the period 1970–2030. Sci. China Ser. C.-Life Sci. 48 (Suppl 2), 767–779 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03187117

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