Abstract
In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J. et al., IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001, 944.
Tao, S. Y., Chen, L. X., A review of recent research on the East Asian monsoon in China, East Asian Monsoon and Torrential Rain in China (in Chinese), Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1998, 89–124.
Wang, H. J., The interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon and its relationship with SST in a coupled atmosphereocean-land climate model, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2000, 17: 31–47.
Bueh, C., Ji, L., Anomalous activity of East Asian winter monsoon and the tropical Pacific SSTA, Chinese Science Bulletin, 1999, 44(10): 890–898.
Wang, S. W., Ye, D. Z., Analysis of the Global Warming During the Last one Hundred Years, Climate Variability (eds. Ye, D., Matsuno, T., Zeng, Q. et al.), Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1993, 23–32.
Hulme, M., Zhao, Z. C., Jiang, T., Recent and future climate change in East Asia, Int. J. Climatol., 1994, 14: 637–658.
Hu, Z. Z., Bengtsson, L., Arpe, K., Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM, J. Geophys. Res., 2000, 105(D4): 4607–4624.
Roeckner, E., Arpe, K., Bengtsson, L. et al., The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4: Model description and simulation of present-day climate, MPI-Report, 1996(218): 90.
Oberhuber, J. M., Simulation of the Atlantic circulation with a coupled sea-ice-mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model, Part I: Model description, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 1993, 22: 808–829.
Bacher, A., Oberhuber, J. M., Roeckner, E., ENSO dynamics and seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific as simulated by the ECHAM4/OPYC3 coupled general circulation model, Clim. Dyn., 1998, 14: 431–450.
Roeckner, E., Bengtsson, L., Feichter, J. et al., Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle, J. Climate, 1999, 12: 3004–3032.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
About this article
Cite this article
Bueh, C. Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Chin.Sci.Bull. 48, 1024–1030 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03184220
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03184220