Abstract
A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280, 355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation—indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate modelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chase, T. N., R. A. Pielke, T. G. F. Kittel, R. Nemani, and S. W. Running, 2000: Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter.Climate Dyn.,16, 93–105.
Chase, T. N., R. A. Pielke Sr., M. Zhao, A. J. Pitman, S. W. Running, and R. R. Nemani, 2001: The relative effects of land cover change and elevated CO2 combined with aerosols: Model results and observations.J. Geophys. Res.,106, 31685–31691.
Dickinson, R. E., A. Henderson-Sellers, and P. J. Kennedy, 1993: Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) Version 1e as Coupled to the NCAR Community Climate Model. NCAR Tech. Note TN-387 + STR, August 1993, 72pp.
Dupuis, D. J., and M. Tsao, 1998: A hybrid estimator for the generalized Pareto and extreme value distributions.Community Statistical Theory Methods,27, 925–941.
Gao Yuejie, Zhao Zongci, Ding Yihui, Huang Ronghui, and Filippo Giorgi, 2001: Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model.Adv. Atmos. Sci.,18(6), 1224–1230.
Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci, and Filippo Giorgi, 2002: Changes of extreme events in regional climate simucations over East Asia.Adv. Atmos. Sci.,19(5), 927–942.
Gao Xuejie, Luo Yong, Lin Wantao, Zhao Zongyi, and Filippo Giorgi, 2003: Simulation of effects of land use change on climate in China by a regional climate model.Adv. Atmos. Sci.,20(4), 583–592.
Hennessy, K. J., J. M. McGregor, and J. F. B. Mitchell, 1997: Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions.Climate Dyn.,13, 667–680.
IPCC, 1996:Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, U. K., 572pp.
IPCC, 2001:Climate Change, 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, UK, 881pp.
Katz, R. W., 1982: Statistical evolution of climate experiments with general circulation models: A parametric time series modeling approach.J. Atmos. Sci.,39, 1446–1455.
Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2000: Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM.J. Climate,13, 3760–3788.
Kiehl, J. T., B. Bouville, J. Hack, P. Rasch, and D. Williamson, 1996: Description of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). NCAR Tech. Note NCRA/TN-420+STR, Boulder, Colorado, USA, 158pp.
McGuffie, K., A. Henderson-Sellers, N. Holbrook, Z. Kothavala, O. Balachova, and J. Hoekstra, 1999: Assessing simulations of daily temperature and precipitation variability with global climate models for present and enhanced greenhouse climates.International Journal of Climatology,19, 1–26.
Pitman, A. J., 2003: The evolution of, and revolution in, land surface schemes designed for climate models.International Journal of Climatology,23, 479–510.
Pitman, A. J., and M. Zhao, 2000: The relative impact of observed change in land cover and carbon dioxide as simulated by a climate model.Geophys. Res. Lett.,27, 1267–1270.
Wang, H., A. J. Pitman, M. Zhao, and R. Leemans, 2003: The impact of historical land cover change on the June meteorology of China since 1700 simulated using a regional climate model.International Journal of Climatology,23, 511–527.
Zhao, M., A. J. Pitman, and T. N. Chase, 2001a: The impact of land cover change on the atmospheric circulation.Climate Dyn.,17, 467–477.
Zhao, M., A. J. Pitman, and T. N. Chase, 2001b: Climatic effects of land cover change at different carbon dioxide levels.Climate Research,17, 1–18.
Zwiers, F. W., and V. V. Kharin, 1998: Changes in the extremes of the climate simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO2 doubling.J. Climate,11, 2200–2222.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhao, M., Pitman, A.J. The relative impact of regional scale land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 22, 58–68 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02930870
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02930870