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New situations facing the NICs in East Asia

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Intereconomics

Abstract

The newly industrialising countries (NICs) in the East Asian region are beginning to be faced with serious problems: problems involved not only in moving from an easy phase of import substitution to a more difficult second stage, but also in progressing from the first to the second more demanding phase of export orientation. Professor Lorenz analyses this new situation.

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References

  1. See the otherwise very different publications by W. Kraus, W. Lütkenhorst: The Economic Development of the Pacific Basin. Growth Dynamics, Trade Relations and Emerging Cooperation, London 1986; and Sung-Jo Park (ed.): The 21st Century—The Asian Century?, Berlin 1985.

  2. Far Eastern Economic Review of 26th September 1985, pp. 99 ff. The Asian Wall Street Journal of 1st September 1986 contained a lengthy article entitled “Asia’s Boom Economies Face Testing Times”.

  3. A. U. Periquet: The Asian NICs: in Transition?, in: Staff Memos, No. 10 (1986), Center for Research and Communication (Manila), p. 2. Meanwhile the slump seems to have been of a more temporary nature (compare Korea’s development in 1986 for instance).

  4. S. Naya: Role of Trade Policies: Competition and Cooperation, East-West Center, Honolulu (mimeo, 1986), p. 6. See also C. Kirkpatrick: Singapore at the Crossroads: the Economic Challenges Ahead, in: National Westminster Bank, Quarterly Review, May 1986, pp. 43–51.

  5. See D. Lorenz: NICs, China, and Pacific Cooperation, in: Sino-Soviet Affairs (Seoul), forthcoming, spring 1987. See also “Des Drachens schwere Flügel: Wirtschaft und Außenhandel Chinas nach der Öffung”, in: ifo-schnelldienst 31/85, Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Ifo), Munich; and “VR China: Rekorddefizit im Außenhandel soll reduziert werden”, in: Wochenbericht 29/86, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin.

  6. M. Ariff, H. Hill: Export-oriented Industrialization: THe ASEAN Experience, Sydney 1985.

  7. See in this connection the Asian Wall Street Journal of 20th June 1986, “Learning to Live With Low Commodity Prices”; and H.-C. Rieger: The Market Economies of Southeast Asia in 1985: ASEAN Pays the Price, in: Southeast Asian Affairs 1986, Singapore 1986, pp. 13–20.

  8. See M. Ariff, H. Hill, op. cit. Export-oriented Industrialization: The ASEAN Experience, Sydney 1985.

  9. See in particular J. Wong: Asian’s Experience in Regional Economic Cooperation, in: Asian Development Review, Vol. 3 (1985), pp. 79–98.

  10. H.-C. Rieger, op. cit. The Market Economies of Southeast Asia in 1985: ASEAN Pays the Price, in: Southeast Asian Affairs 1986, Singapore 1986, p. 30. See also Chng Meng Kng: ASEAN Economic Co-operation: The Current Status, in: Southeast Asian Affairs, Singapore 1985, pp. 31–53.

  11. S. Naya, op. cit. Role of Trade Policies: Competition and Cooperation, East-West Center, Honolulu (mimeo, 1986), p. 23.

  12. H.-C. Rieger, op. cit. The Market Economies of Southeast Asia in 1985: ASEAN Pays the Price, in: Southeast Asian Affairs 1986, Singapore 1986, p. 29; see p. 30 with regard to other disagreements within ASEAN.

  13. For a comparison of developments and an assessment of prospects, see the article in the Far Eastern Economic Review quoted in footnote 2, the paper by Periquet (footnote 3) and E. Y. Chen: The Newly Industrializing Countries in Asia: Growth Experience and Prospects, in: A. Scalapino (ed.): Asian Economic Development, Berkeley 1985, pp. 131–160.

  14. E. Y. Chen, op. cit. The Newly Industrializing Countries in Asia: Growth Experience and Prospects, in: A. Scalapino (ed.): Asian Economic Development, Berkeley 1985, p. 141. With regard to Singapore, see the lucid article by Linda Y. C. Lim: Singapore’s Success. The Myth of the Free Market Economy, in: Asian Survey, Vol 23. (1983), pp. 752–764.

  15. Cf. A. U. Periquet, op. cit. The Asian NICs: in Transition?, in: Staff Memos, No. 10 (1986), Center for Research and Communication (Manila), p. 3 and the interesting article by Cheah Hock Beng: The Downturn in the Singapore Economy, in: Southeast Asian Affairs 1986, Singapore 1986, pp. 296–312.

  16. Cheah Hock Beng, op. cit. The Downturn in the Singapore Economy, in: Southeast Asian Affairs 1986, Singapore 1986, p. 311.

  17. See A. Pfaller (ed.): Der Kampf um den Wohlstand von Morgen. Internationaler Strukturwandel und neuer Merkantilismus, Bonn 1986; and D. Lorenz: A GATT for the Mercantilists?, in: INTERECONOMICS, No. 6, 1985, pp. 255–260.

  18. See the notable contribution by K. Esser: Regional and Industrial Division of Labour, in: K. Esser et al. (eds.): Changes in World Economic Conditions—Implications for Latin America, Berlin 1984, pp. 119–138.

  19. Cheah Hock Beng, op. cit. The Downturn in the Singapore Economy, in: Southeast Asian Affairs 1986, Singapore 1986, p. 300.

  20. E. Y. Chen, op. cit. The Newly Industrializing Countries in Asia: Growth Experience and Prospects, in: A. Scalapine (ed.): Asian Economic Development, Berkeley 1985, p. 136 ff.

  21. E. Y. Chen, op. cit. The Newly Industrializing Countries in Asia: Growth Experience and Prospects, in: A. Scalapine (ed.): Asian Economic Development, Berkeley 1985, p. 152.

  22. A. U. Periquet, op. cit., The Asian NICs: in Transition?, in: Staff Memos, No. 10 (1986), Center for Research and Communication (Manila), p. 7. See also R. M. Mohs: Can the Second Generation Succeed?, in: INTERECONOMICS, No. 1, 1985, pp. 21–26.

  23. I. Yamazawa, K. Taniguchi, A. Hirata: Trade and Industrial Adjustment in Pacific Asian Countries, in: The Developing Economies, Vol. XXI (1983), pp. 281–312 (these quotations from pp. 283 and 302).

  24. H. W. Branson: Trade and Structural Interdependence Between the U.S. and the NICs. Draft, prepared for NBER Conference in Kuala Lumpur, January 1984 (revised May 1984).

  25. See in particular U. Hiemenz, R. J. Langhammer: Declining Competitiveness of EC Supplier in ASEAN Markets: Singular Case or Symptom?, in: Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. XXIV (1985), pp. 105–119.

  26. Regarding “trilateral competition” between the USA, Japan and the EC in ASEAN, see D. Lorenz: International Division of Labour or Closer Cooperation? A Look at Asean-EC Economic Relations, in: ASEAN Economic Bulletin, Vol. 2 (1986), pp. 176–180.

  27. On the situation between the USA and Latin America, See W. H. Branson, op. cit. Trade and Structural Interdependence Between the U.S. and the NICs. Draft, prepared for NBER Conference in Kuala Lumpur, January 1984 on the situation between the EC and the Far East, see D. Lorenz: International Division of Labour or Closer Cooperation?, op. cit. A GATT for the Mercantlists?, in: INTERECONOMICS, No. 6, 1985, pp. 176 and 180.

  28. On this issue, see the study by R. J. Langhammer, D. Spinanger: Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen Entwicklungsländern. Chancen und Risiken, Tübingen 1984.

  29. M. Ariff, H. Hill, op. cit. Export-oriented Industrialization: THe ASEAN, Experience, Sydney 1985. pp. 60 and 198 ff. See also D. Lorenz: Problems of Intraregional and Intra-Industry Trade in the East Asian Region as Seen from Outside (mimeo, Berlin 1986).

  30. R. Erzan, S. Laird: Intra-Industry Trade of Developing Countries and Some Policy Issues, Seminar Paper No. 289 of the Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm 1984.

  31. Cf. H.-C. Rieger, op. cit., The Market Economies of Southeast Asia in 1985: ASEAN Pays the Price, in: Southeast Asian Affairs 1986, Singapore 1986, pp. 27–30; M. Ariff, H. Hill, op. cit., chapter 3; Chng Meng Kng, op. cit., pp. 31 ff.

  32. Cf. R. J. Langhammer, D. Spinanger, op. cit., Wirtschaftliche Zusammenabeit zwischen Entwicklungsländern. Chancen und Risiken, Tübingen 1984, p. 89.

  33. Ibid. Cf. R. J. Langhammer, D. Spinanger, op. cit. Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit zwischen Entwicklungsländern. Chancen und Risiken, Tübingen 1984, pp. 89–90.

  34. I. Yamazawa, T. Nohara, H. Osada: Economic Interdependence in Pacific Asia: An International Input-Output Analysis, in: The Developing Economies, Vol. XXIV (1986), pp. 101–104.

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  1. Free University, Berlin

    Detlef Lorenz

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Lorenz, D. New situations facing the NICs in East Asia. Intereconomics 21, 263–268 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925171

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