Zusammenfassung
Ein Modell des Wechselkursverhaltens des Yen und der Deutschen Mark gegenüber dem Dollar. — Ziel dieser Untersuchung ist es, die kurz- und langfristigen Beziehungen zwischen bilateralen Wechselkursen und wirtschaftlichen Variablen zu bestimmen (Unterschiede im Geldangebot, Zinsdifferenzen, Abweichungen von der KaufkraftparitÄt, Unterschiede in der Inflationsrate, Industrieproduktion und Handelsbilanz). Statistische Tests auf Kointegration werden durchgeführt; und wenn die Hypothese “Keine Kointegration” zurückgewiesen wird, ergibt sich eine langfristige Gleichgewichtsbeziehung. Eine kurzfristige Beziehung wird im Rahmen eines Irrtumskorrektur-Modells geschÄtzt. Für den Yen/Dollar-Kurs ergeben sich lang- und kurzfristige Beziehungen, die ökonometrischen Tests standhalten. Für den DM/Dollar-Kurs ist die langfristige Beziehung zweifelhaft, aber eine kurzfristige Beziehung wird ermittelt. Das ist plausibel, wenn man die Effizienz des Devisenmarktes berücksichtigt.
Résumé
Le modelage du comportement des cours du change du Yen et de la mark allemande envers le dollar. — L’intention de cette étude est de déterminer les rapports à court terme et à long terme entre les cours du change bilatéraux et des variables économiques comme les différences concernant l’offre monétaire, les taux d’intéréts, les taux d’inflation, l’activité industrielle ainsi que les déviations de la PPA et les balances commerciales. On fait des tests statistiques de cointégration. Si l’hypothèse de non-cointégration est rejeté, on obtient un rapport d’équilibre à long terme. On estime aussi un rapport à court terme en utilisant un modèle d’erreur-correction. En ce qui concerne le cours du change entre le Yen et le dollar, on obtient un rapport à long terme et à court terme qui satisfait des tests économétriques. Pour la DM/dollar relation, le rapport à long terme est douteux, mais un rapport à court terme est obtenu. Ce résultat est plausible si l’on considère l’efficience du marché des changes.
Resumen
Modelando el comportamiento de la tasa de cambio del yen y del marco alemán frente al dólar. — El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar las relaciones de corto y largo plazo entre tasas de cambio bilaterales y variables económicas como las diferencias entre la oferta monetaria, entre las tasas de interés, entre las tasas de inflación, entre la actividad industrial, las deviaciones de la paridad del poder de compra y el saldo comercial. Se llevan a cabo tests estadisticos de cointegración y, en caso de rechazarse la hipótesis de no cointegración, se obtiene una relación de equilibrio de largo plazo. Se estima una relación de corto plazo utilizando un marco de correction de errores. Para la tasa yen/dólar se obtienen relaciones de corto y largo plazo que satisfacen tests econométricos. Para la tasa DM/dólar la relación de largo plazo es sospechosa; se obtiene una de corto plazo. Esto es plausible, dada la eficiencia con la cual funciona el mercado de cambios.
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Parikh, A. Modelling the exchange rate behaviour of yen and deutsche mark against the dollar. Rev World Econ 127, 472–499 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707732
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02707732