Abstract
Is the European Union a Natural Currency Area, or Is It Held Together by Policymakers? — In 1999, EMU started with 11 members, but with considerable uncertainty about the depth of the convergence between them. The optimal currency area literature stresses the need for shocks which are symmetric and of similar size across countries. Our results show that symmetries in the core are only marginally stronger than those in the periphery; and that these symmetries have been increasingly maintained by policy interventions. Consequently, Europe may evolve into an optimal currency area; but the symmetries will be policy-induced rather than a market phenomenon. This suggests a fragility which could be reflected in the value of the new currency.
Zusammenfassung
Ist die EuropÄische Union ein natürlicher WÄhrungsraum oder wird sie durch Politiker zusammengehalten? — Im Jahre {dy1999} startete die EWU mit 11 Mitgliedstaaten, aber mit erheblicher Unsicherheit hinsichtlich der Tiefe der Konvergenz zwischen ihnen. Die Literatur über den optimalen WÄhrungsraum betont die Notwendigkeit von Schocks, die symmetrisch und lÄnderweit von Ähnlicher StÄrke sind. Die Ergebnisse der Verfasser zeigen, da\ Symmetrien im Kernraum nur unwesentlich stÄrker sind als in der Peripherie und da\ diese Symmetrien zunehmend durch politische Eingriffe aufrechterhalten worden sind. Folglich könnte sich Europa zum optimalen WÄhrungsraum entwickeln, aber die Symmetrien werden eher politik-induziert als ein MarktphÄnomen sein. Das deutet auf eine SchwÄche hin, die sich im Wert der neuen WÄhrung wiederspiegeln könnte.
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