Abstract
Real Wage Rigidities, Accommodative Demand Policies, and the Functioning of EMU. — The paper shows that the primacy of politics over economics in the decision to start EMU with eleven countries on January 1, 1999 could have serious consequences concerning the functioning and stability of EMU, in particular during the transition phase. The paper demonstrates empirically that real wages in EMU member countries are highly rigid by international comparison and that demand policies played a considerable role in absorbing adverse shocks in the past. Considering that real wages are unlikely to become much more flexible soon, and taking also into account that the use of demand policies in EMU is severely curtailed, it becomes clear that EMU will face a severe crisis if large asymmetric shocks do in fact occur.
Zusammenfassung
ReallohnrigiditÄten, akkommodierende Nachfragepolitik und das Funktionieren der EWU. — Der Artikel zeigt, da\ die stÄrkere Gewichtung von politischen Zielen gegenüber ökonomischen überlegungen bei der Entscheidung, die europÄische WÄhrungsunion Anfang 1999 mit 11 LÄndern zu beginnen, insbesondere in der übergangsphase negative Auswirkungen auf das Funktionieren und die StabilitÄt der EWU haben kann. Es wird empirisch gezeigt, da\ die Reallöhne in den EWU-MitgliedslÄndern im internationalen Vergleich Äu\erst rigide sind und da\ eine akkom-modierende Nachfragepolitik in der Vergangenheit eine nicht unerhebliche Rolle bei der Abfederung von Schocks gespielt hat. Bedenkt man, da\ die Reallöhne in abseh-barer Zeit kaum nennenswert flexibler sein werden und da\ die Verfügbarkeit der Nach-fragepolitik in der EWU erheblich eingeschrÄnkt wird, so wird klar, da\ es im Falle von grö\eren asymmetrischen Schocks zu erheblichen Spannungen in der EWU kommen wird.
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