Abstract
The issuance of an earthquake prediction must cause widespread social responses. It is suggested and discussed in this paper that the comprehensive decision issue for earthquake prediction considering the factors of the social and economic cost. The method of matrix decision for earthquake prediction (MDEP) is proposed in this paper and it is based on the risk matrix. The goal of decision is that search the best manner issuing earthquake prediction so that minimize the total losses of economy. The establishment and calculation of the risk matrix is discussed, and the decision results taking account of economic factors and not considering the economic factors are compared by examples in this paper.
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References
Research Group of Estimating Losses from Future Earthquakes, 1990.Research on Losses from Earthquake Damages in China. Seismological Press, Beijing.
Teaching Materials Compiling Group of Operational Research, 1982.Operational Research. Qinghua University Press, Beijing.
Zou, Q. J. and Zhang, S. Q., 1990. Social and economic responses to earthquake prediction and countermeasures against the prediction insurance.Acta Seismologica Sinica,3, 223–231 (in English).
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The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismological Sinica,15, 232–238, 1993.
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Zou, QJ. Earthquake prediction decision and risk matrix. Acta Seismologica Sinica 6, 739–747 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02650413
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02650413