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A critique of lifetime prediction of polymers by thermal analysis

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Abstract

Attempts are made to use kinetics parameters from thermal decomposition experiments at high temperatures to predict service lifetimes of polymeric materials at lower temperatures. However, besides the obvious measurement and extrapolation errors (which can be considerable), there are two fundamental reasons why quantitative long range extrapolations can not be made for complex condensed phase systems. They are: 1) Arrhenius kinetics parameters can not be extrapolated through phase transitions or softening temperatures; 2) Arrhenius kinetics parameters can not be extrapolated through the ceiling temperature region. Satisfactory lifetime prediction methods can be developed only after a thorough analysis of the causes of service failure. A real method has been taken from literature to illustrate the correct procedures.

Zusammenfassung

Es wurden Bemühungen angestellt, um kinetische Parameter aus thermischen Zersetzungsexperimenten bei hohen Temperaturen zur Vorhersage der Lebensdauer von polymeren Werkstoffen bei niedrigen Temperaturen zu treffen. Neben den eindeutigen Meß- und Extrapolationsfehlern (die sehr beachtlich sein können), gibt es zwei grundlegende Gründe, warum für komplexe kondensierte Phasensysteme keine quantitativen weitreichenden Extrapolationen erstellt werden können. Dies sind: 1) Arrhenius'sche kinetische Parameter können nicht über Phasenumwandlungen oder Erweichungstemperaturen hinweg extrapoliert werden; 2) Arrhenius'sche kinetische Parameter können nicht über den Hochtemperaturbereich hinweg extrapoliert werden. Zufriedenstellende Lebensdauervorhersagen können erst nach einer gründlichen Analyse der Gründe für Einsatzfehler entwickelt werden.

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  1. Scientific Thermal Research and Data Analysis (STRDA), 5309 Iroquois Road, 20816, Bethesda, Maryland, USA

    J. H. Flynn

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This paper is, in part, based on the Honorary Guest Lecture given at the Sixth Seminar in Memory of Stanislaus Bretsznajder [1].

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Flynn, J.H. A critique of lifetime prediction of polymers by thermal analysis. Journal of Thermal Analysis 44, 499–512 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02636139

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