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Epidemiology models, modified to include landscape pattern, are used to examine the relative importance of landscape geometry and disturbance dynamics in determining the spatial extent of a disturbance, such as a fire. The models indicate that, except for very small values for the probability of spread, a disturbance tends to propagate to all susceptible sites that can be reached. Therefore, spatial pattern, rather than disturbance dynamic, will ordinarily determine the total extent of a single disturbance event. The models also indicate that a single disturbance will seldom become endemic,i.e., always present on the landscape. However, increasing disturbance frequency can lead to a landscape in which the proportion of susceptible, disturbed, and recovering sites are relatively constant.
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Research supported by Ecological Research Division, Office of Health and Environmental Research, U.S. Department of Energy under contract No. DE-AC05-840R21400 with Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Contribution No. 10 to the Sevilleta LTER program. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 3812, ORNL.
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O’Neill, R.V., Gardner, R.H., Turner, M.G. et al. Epidemiology theory and disturbance spread on landscapes. Landscape Ecol 7, 19–26 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02573954
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02573954