Abstract
Variations in terrestrial insolation, induced by perturbations of the earth's orbital parameters, are calculated for different geographical latitudes for ±100000 yr and in detail for the modern period between A.D. 1800–2100. The calculations show that short-period insolation variations occur against a background of secular variation, with an amplitude which can be comparable in magnitude to that of the 300-yr secular trend. For comparison we calculate the secular trends of insolation for Milankovich's caloric half-years for the period ±100000 yr with high time resolution. The nature of secular and short-term insolation changes is discussed for different latitudinal circles during future centuries. We conclude that orbitally-induced variations of insolation with periods of 18.6, 11.9, 5.9, 4.0, and 2.7 yr will perturb the radiation regime at the upper atmospheric boundary.
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Borisenkov, Y.P., Tsvetkov, A.V. & Agaponov, S.V. On some characteristics of insolation changes in the past and the future. Climatic Change 5, 237–244 (1983). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02423520
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02423520