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New results regarding the influence of solar activity on the stratospheric-tropospheric exchange

Neue Ergebnisse über den Einfluß der Sonnenaktivität auf den stratosphärisch-troposphärischen Austausch

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Summary

The dependence of stratospheric intrusions on solar events is analyzed on the basis of 8-years' recordings of the concentration of stratospheric radionuclides and the ozone at 3 km altitude, as well as of the atmospheric profile of the ozone concentration and the total ozone.

A significant, even though weak influence of solar magnetic sector structure boundary passages of type-/+ can be identified, a seasonal influence, however, is also observed. The strong 50 to 80% increase in the frequency of stratospheric intrusions after solarH α-flares is significant and completely independent of the phase of the solar cycle and season. The total atmospheric ozone shows also a correlation with solar flares: A well defined maximum on the day preceding the flare. The neutron density clearly shows the Forbush decrease on theH α-key day. Using key days with Forbush minimum for the superposed epoch analysis reveals a significant maximum of the Be 7-concentration on the day before the flare (rise by about 45 to 60%).

Notable is the following sequence: Approximately 3 days before the solar flare the neutron density begins to decrease, 1 to 2 days before the flare the total atmospheric ozone maximizes, and 2 to 3 days after the flare one finds the maximum of the Be 7 in the troposphere as a consequence of the stratospheric intrusion.

Around days with maximum Be 7-concentration the reliability of weather forecasts is clearly reduced — a fact, which at this point is obviously indicative of an acute activation of a labile atmospheric condition.

We selected some characteristic individual cases to demonstrate by means of tables the time lapse of typical solar atmospheric and geophysical variables associated with solar flares. The attendant structures of the vertical ozone profile are discussed.

Some preliminary reflections on a physical link are set forth.

Zusammenfassung

Anhand 8jähriger Registrierungen der Konzentration stratosphärischer Radionuklide und des Ozon in 3 km Höhe sowie des atmosphärischen Profils der Ozon-Konzentration und des Gesamt-Ozon wird die Abhängigkeit stratosphärischer Lufteinbrüche in die Troposphäre von solaren Ereignissen analysiert.

Ein signifikanter, wenn auch schwacher Einfluß von Sektordurchgängen des interplanetarischen Magnetfeldes beim Polaritätswechsel vom Typ-/+ läßt sich nachweisen, jedoch geht ein jahreszeitlicher Einfluß mit ein.

Signifikant und völlig unabhängig von der Phase des solaren Zyklus und der Jahreszeit ist die starke Zunahme der Häufigkeit bzw. der Stärke von stratosphärischen Lufteinbrüchen 2 bis 3 Tage nachH α-Eruptionen (Zunahme um 50 bis 80%). Das atmosphärische Gesamt-Ozon zeigt ebenfalls eine Korrelation mitH α-Eruptionen: Ein gut ausgeprägtes Maximum am Tag vor der Eruption wird festgestellt. Die Neutronendichte zeigt amH α-Stichtag deutlich den Forbush-Effekt. Verwendet man Stichtage mit einem Forbush-Effekt für die Überlagerungs-Analyse, so findet man am Tage vor dem Stichtag ein signifikantes Maximum der Be 7-Konzentration (Anstieg um 45–60%). Auffallend ist die folgende Zeitfolge: Etwa 3 Tage vor derH α-Eruption beginnt die Neutronendichte abzusinken, 1 bis 2 Tage vor der Eruption erreicht das atmosphärische Gesamt-Ozon das Maximum, 2 bis 3 Tage nach derH α-Eruption findet man das Maximum des Be 7 in der Troposphäre als Folge der stratosphärischen Lufteinbrüche.

Um Tage mit maximaler Be 7-Konzentration ist die Treffsicherheit von Wetterprognosen eindeutig reduziert. Man hat es also zu diesem Zeitpunkt offensichtlich mit der akuten Aktivierung eines labilen atmosphärischen Zustandes zu tun.

Anhand von Tabellen wird der zeitliche Ablauf von charakteristischen solaren atmosphärischen und geophysikalischen Größen im Zusammenhang mit solaren Ereignissen für einige charakteristische Einzelfälle dargelegt. Die zugehörigen Strukturen des vertikalen Ozon-Profiles werden besprochen.

Einige vorläufige Gedanken über einen Kausalzusammenhang werden dargelegt.

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  1. R. Reiter

    Present address: Institute for Atmospheric Environmental Research of the Fraunhofer Society, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, D-8100, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Federal Republic of Germany

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    Reiter, R. New results regarding the influence of solar activity on the stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. Arch. Met. Geoph. Biokl. A. 28, 309–339 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02310047

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