Abstract
A quantitative technique for estimating extinctions due to clearing of natural ecosystems is described. Applied on a global scale, the method yields preliminary figures on extinctions of flowering plants, butterflies, land birds and land mammals ranging from 5.4 to 15.3% for the period from the beginning of agriculture until the year 1980. Actual numbers of extinctions of mammals and birds to date are much lower, possibly in part due to a tendency for the technique to overestimate species loss at the global scale. However, delayed extinctions of species whose populations have been reduced but not exterminated by habitat destruction are likely, suggesting that human impacts may be more serious than they currently appear.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
ARRHENIUS, O. (1921): Species and area. J. Ecol. 9: 95–99.
BOECKLEN, W. J. and SIMBERLOFF, D. (1986): Area-based extinction models in conservation. In: Dynamics of extinction (Ed. by D. K. Elliott), pp. 247–276. Wiley, New York.
BOX, E. O. (1978): Geographical dimensions of terrestrial net and gross primary productivity. Rad. Environ. Biophys. 15: 305–322.
CONNOR, E. F. and McCOY, E. D. (1979): The statistics and biology of the species-area relationship. Am. Nat. 113: 791–833.
DIAMOND, J. M. (1984a): Historic extinctions: a Rosetta Stone for understanding prehistoric extinctions. In: Quaternary Extinctions: a Prehistoric Revolution (Ed. by P. S. Martin & R. G. Klein). University of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 824–862.
DIAMOND, J. M. (1984b): “Normal” extinctions of isolated populations. In: Extinctions (Ed. by M. H. Nitecki), University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 191–246.
FAO (1980): Production yearbook. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
GLEASON, H. A. (1922): On the relation between species and area. Ecology 3: 158–162.
GLEASON, H. A. (1925): Species and area. Ecology 6: 66–74.
GOODWIN, H. A. and GOODWIN, J. M. (1973): List of mammals which have become extinct or are possibly extinct since 1600. IUCN Occasional Paper No. 8, IUCN, Morges, Switzerland.
HOUGHTON, R. A., HOBBIE, J. E., MELILLO, J. M., MOORE, B., PETERSON, B. J., SHAVER, G. R. & WOODWELL, G. M. (1983): Changes in the carbon content of terrestrial biota and soils between 1860 and 1980: a net release of CO2 to the atmosphere. Ecol. Monogr. 53: 235–262.
IUCN (1978): Red Data Book, Vol. 1: Mammalia. IUCN, Morges, Switzerland.
KING, W. B. (1981): Endangered birds of the world: the ICBP Red Data Book. Smithsonian Inst. Press, Washington, DC.
LIETH, H. (1975): Modeling the primary productivity of the world. In: Primary productivity of the biosphere (Ed. by H. Lieth and R. H. Whittaker), pp. 237–263. Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 237–263.
LOVEJOY, T. E., RANKIN, J. M., BIERREGAARD, R. O., BROWN, K. S., EMMONS, L. H. and VAN DER VOORT, M. E. (1984): Ecosystem decay of Amazon forest remnants. In: Extinctions (Ed. by M. H. Nitecki). University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 295–325.
MACARTHUR, R. H. and WILSON, E. O. (1967): The theory of island biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.
PRESTON, F. W. (1962): The canonical distribution of commonness and rarity. Ecology 43: 185–215, 410–432.
RAPOPORT, E. H. (1982): Areography. Pergamon, Oxford.
SIMBERLOFF, D. (1986): Are we on the verge of a mass extinction in tropical rain forests? In: Dynamics of extinction (Ed. by D. K. Elliott), pp. 165–180. Wiley, New York.
SOULE, M. E., WILCOX, B. A. and HOLTBY, C., (1979): Benign neglect: a model of faunal collapse in the game reserves of East Africa. Biol. Conserv. 15: 259–272.
VITOUSEK, P. M., EHRLICH, P. R., EHRLICH, A. M. & MATSON, P. A. (1986): Human appropriation of the products of photosynthesis. BioScience 36: 368–373.
WHITTAKER, R. H. and LIKENS, G. E. (1975): The biosphere and man. In: Primary productivity of the Biosphere (Ed. by H. Lieth & R. H. Whittaker). Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 305–328.
WILLIAMS, C. B. (1943): Area and number of species. Nature 152: 264–267.
WRIGHT, D. H. (1983): Species-energy theory: an extension of species-area theory. Oikos 41: 496–506.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wright, D.H. Estimating human effects on global extinction. Int J Biometeorol 31, 293–299 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02188940
Received:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02188940