Abstract
Although France and Italy currently exhibit very similar expectations of life, their mortality patterns by age and sex are not the same. The differences were much greater at the beginning of the century than they are now. Graphical presentation of the data since 1900 by age, period and birth cohort is used to explore in detail the differences in trends and to bring out, in particular, differences between the two countries in period and cohort effects. In addition to providing more details on well-known period effects — the secular decline in mortality in both countries (with Italy largely ‘catching up’ with France), and the immediate effects of the world wars — similarities and differences in cohort effects are also apparent. The two countries exhibit clear differences not only in terms of immediate casualties of the wars, but also in terms of the long-term impact of unfavourable wartime living conditions on the cohorts most affected.
Résumé
Les structures par âge de la mortalité ont évolué différemment en Italie et en France, et les différences observées aujourd'hui entre les deux pays ne sont plus les mêmes qu'au début du siècle. Dans cette évolution, la tendance générale au progrès sanitaire a joué un rôle majeur, plutôt favorable à l'Italie qui a vu sa mortalité se rapprocher de celle de la France aux jeunes âges et accentuer son avantage aux âges adultes. Ce n'est guère qu'aux âges élevés que la France a amélioré sa position relative. Cependant, le passage de la situation de 1900 à la situation actuelle a suivi un cheminement complexe et chaotique où les perturbations dues aux guerres mondiales tiennent une place importante. Celles-ci sont à l'origine de divers effets de génération qui sont mis ici en évidence grâce à un procédé graphique de représentation en courbes de niveau appliqué aux séries, disponibles pour ces deux pays, de quotients de mortalité par année d'âge et année d'observation, de 1899 à 1979.
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Acknowledgements: Special thanks are due to Bradley A. Gambill, Margaret Kerr and Shoba Venkatavaman of the Population Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria) for their valuable technical aid with the figures presented here.
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Caselli, G., Vallin, J., Vaupel, J.W. et al. Age-specific mortality trends in France and Italy since 1900: Period and cohort effects. Eur J Population 3, 33–60 (1987). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01797091
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01797091